[CM] [WH] [E3] [CRA] [T3] Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Introduction

The Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment (RAR) builds upon the threats identified in Part 1: CRA – List of Threats/ Crisis Scenarios by evaluating the potential consequences and probability of each scenario.

For Woodland's Health, this process is essential to determine which threats pose the most significant risk to service continuity, patient safety, and organisational resilience.

By assessing each crisis scenario across multiple impact areas—finance, operations, legal and regulatory compliance, reputation, social responsibility, people, and assets/IT systems—this chapter provides a quantitative basis for prioritising preparedness and response measures.

Each risk is scored on its potential severity and likelihood, producing a Risk Rating and Risk Level classification. The assessment also considers the expected period of disruption, enabling more precise contingency planning.

This structured analysis ensures that resources are allocated to the most critical vulnerabilities, supports decision-making at both operational and leadership levels, and aligns with the National Healthcare Group’s risk management framework as well as Singapore’s broader national resilience objectives.

Part 3: RAR – Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment for Woodland's Health (Categorised by Crisis Types)

Risk Rating Guide

Risk Level bands (example guidance notes based on BCM Institute)

• Very Low: 1–5
• Low: 6–9
• Medium: 10–14
• High: 15–19
• Very High: ≥20

How to use this template

1. Impact Area Ratings: Score each of the seven categories from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High).
2. Highest Impact: Select the highest score among those seven.
3. Likelihood: Assign a 1–5 rating based on your organisation's experience/frequency
4. Assign Risk Level based on the rating’s band.
5. Expected Disruption: Estimate downtime using organisational intelligence and context.

Conclusion

The RAR findings highlight the varied scale and nature of risks facing Woodlands Health—from high-frequency operational disruptions to rare but high-impact events that could significantly affect the organisation’s ability to deliver care.

Scenarios such as pandemics, IT system failures, and critical supply shortages emerged with the highest risk ratings, reinforcing the need for robust mitigation measures, redundancy planning, and crisis response readiness.

By quantifying both impact and likelihood, this chapter transforms the earlier threat list into a prioritised, evidence-based risk register.

This enables Woodlands Health to channel investments, training, and contingency resources toward the areas of greatest vulnerability.

The CAR is not a one-off exercise; it should be reviewed periodically and updated in light of new data, evolving threats, and lessons learned from exercises or real incidents.

Maintaining an up-to-date risk profile is a critical step in ensuring that Woodlands Health remains prepared, responsive, and resilient in the face of emerging challenges.

 

More Information About Crisis Management Blended/ Hybrid Learning Courses

To learn more about the course and schedule, click the buttons below for the  CM-300 Crisis Management Implementer [CM-3] and the CM-5000 Crisis Management Expert Implementer [CM-5].

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