[CM] [WH] [E2] [C3] [CRA] Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment

The Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment (CRA) phase forms the foundation of Woodlands Health’s crisis management readiness.

It systematically identifies, evaluates, and prioritises potential crisis scenarios that could disrupt patient care, compromise safety, or undermine operational stability.

This phase ensures that WH is prepared to respond decisively to threats, reducing harm and ensuring continuity of services to the Northern Singapore population.

In the ISO 22361-aligned Crisis Management Planning Methodology, this phase follows project initiation and sets the course for all subsequent planning, response, and recovery activities.

The following steps outline how WH can implement this phase effectively.

Step 1: Establish the Crisis Scenario Identification Framework

Description

Define the scope, categories, and parameters for identifying crisis scenarios. Ensure the framework reflects WH’s unique operational, clinical, and community context.

Example for WH

• Scope includes acute hospital services, sub-acute and rehabilitative care, Women’s Health & Specialist Centre, Children’s Clinic, and the Woodlands Healing Garden.
• Categories may include natural hazards, public health emergencies, infrastructure failures, IT/cyber incidents, supply chain disruptions, and reputational crises.
• Parameters might assess likelihood, severity of impact on patient safety, disruption to essential services, and recovery complexity.

Step 2: Gather Data and Intelligence on Potential Threats

Description

Use both internal and external sources to compile a comprehensive list of potential threats relevant to WH’s healthcare environment.

Example for WH

• Internal sources: Incident reports, near-miss logs, hospital safety audits, biomedical equipment maintenance records.
• External sources: MOH disease outbreak bulletins, NEA environmental hazard advisories, PUB flood risk maps, NHG Health incident trends.
• Emerging threats: Anticipated increase in dengue outbreaks due to climate change, ransomware attacks targeting Singapore’s healthcare sector.

Step 3: Develop a List of Plausible Crisis Scenarios

Description

Translate identified threats into realistic, operationally relevant crisis scenarios.

Example for WH

• Mass Casualty Event: A multi-vehicle accident on the Seletar Expressway floods the Emergency Department with critical patients.
• Disease Outbreak: Novel respiratory virus spreads within the community, overwhelming inpatient wards.
• Power Failure: Prolonged campus-wide power outage affecting operating theatres, ICUs, and medication refrigeration units.
• Cyberattack: Ransomware disables access to electronic health records, impacting care coordination.
• Flooding: Heavy monsoon rains cause localised flooding in basement service areas, damaging critical medical supplies.

Step 4: Conduct Risk Assessment for Each Scenario

Description

• Assess each scenario using likelihood and impact criteria, prioritising those with the most tremendous potential to disrupt care.

Example for WH

• Likelihood: Evaluate based on historical frequency, trend analysis, and expert judgment.
• Impact: Measure against factors such as patient safety, service disruption duration, financial cost, and reputational damage.
• Example table:
  
  

Scenario	Likelihood (1-5)	Impact (1-5)	Risk Rating (LxI)	Priority
Mass Casualty Event	3	5	15	High
Disease Outbreak	4	5	20	Critical
Power Failure	2	4	8	Medium
Cyberattack	3	4	12	High
Flooding	2	3	6	Low

 

 

 

 

Step 5: Validate and Refine Assessment with Stakeholders

Description

Engage internal experts, clinical leaders, and operational managers to verify the accuracy and relevance of the scenarios and risk ratings.

Example for WH

• Conduct a multi-disciplinary workshop with representatives from nursing, facilities management, IT, infection control, emergency planning, and communications.
• Use tabletop exercises to test whether identified scenarios are realistic and risk ratings are valid.
• Revise risk scores based on input (e.g., increase flooding risk rating after new drainage inspection report).

Step 6: Document and Communicate Results

Description

• Prepare a Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment Report to guide crisis response strategy development.
• Share it with leadership, crisis management teams, and relevant operational units.

Example for WH

• The report includes a ranked list of priority scenarios, maps showing vulnerable campus areas, and recommended preparedness actions.
• Executive summary presented to WH’s Crisis Management Steering Committee for endorsement.
• Distribute a one-page infographic to all staff highlighting top 3 crisis scenarios and their immediate action expectations.

Step 7: Integrate Findings into Crisis Management Plans

Description

Ensure priority scenarios directly shape WH’s Crisis Response Plans, resource allocation, and training exercises.

Example for WH

• Disease outbreak scenario drives stockpiling of PPE, surge capacity protocols, and infection control drills.
• Cyberattack scenario informs IT redundancy investments and data recovery exercises.
• Mass casualty event scenario determines triage training and coordination with the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF).

Summing Up ...

By systematically implementing the Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment phase, Woodlands Health ensures that its crisis management planning is grounded in real-world threats and tailored to the hospital’s unique role in Northern Singapore’s healthcare network.

The process transforms abstract risks into actionable priorities, enabling WH to allocate resources wisely, strengthen operational resilience, and protect the well-being of patients, staff, and the wider community.

 

Operational Readiness: Crisis Management Implementation for Woodlands Health
eBook 2: Implementing Crisis Management for Woodlands Health

More Information About Crisis Management Courses

To learn more about the course and schedule, click the buttons below for the  CM-300 Crisis Management Implementer [CM-3] and the CM-5000 Crisis Management Expert Implementer [CM-5].