[OR] [MCB] [E3] [CBS] [1] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1: Electricity Generation and Distribution Operations

Summing Up …

Introduction

Purpose of the Chapter

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This chapter presents a structured analysis of severe but plausible scenarios for each critical sub-process within CBF-1 Electricity Generation and Distribution Operations at Malakoff Corporation, a leading energy generation company in Malaysia.

With an increasingly complex operational environment shaped by energy transition pressures, digitisation, and climate volatility, Malakoff needs to anticipate and prepare for high-impact. These low-likelihood events could severely disrupt its core services.

The chapter outlines scenario-specific threats, their integration with cyber and ICT risks, and documents proactive risk management actions currently in place to mitigate these vulnerabilities.

The purpose of this chapter is to enable senior management, risk officers, and operational leaders to understand the interdependencies between operational functions and digital infrastructure across Malakoff’s electricity generation and distribution value chain.

It provides a comprehensive framework for assessing potential resilience gaps, ensuring compliance with regulatory expectations on operational resilience, and supporting informed decision-making around business continuity planning and risk prioritisation.

Before proceeding with the chapter, readers should aim to appreciate how cyber-physical convergence introduces new threat vectors and how scenario testing serves as a foundational element for resilience maturity.

Sub-CBF Code	Sub-CBF	Severe but Plausible Scenario	Link to Cyber & ICT Risks	Evidence of Proactive Risk Management Action
1.1	Power Plant Operations (Thermal & Renewable)	Major turbine/ generator failure causing prolonged plant outage	Industrial control systems (ICS) breach via malware	Predictive maintenance systems and turbine integrity audits
1.2	Grid Connection & Load Dispatch Coordination	Grid instability due to transmission failure or uncoordinated load shedding	SCADA compromise resulting in false dispatch signals	Grid coordination drills and redundancy protocols with TNB
1.3	Energy Trading and Market Participation	Market manipulation leading to price volatility and losses	Breach of trading platforms or data manipulation	Secure trading platform with multi-factor authentication (MFA) and audit logs
1.4	Operations & Maintenance (O&M) Activities	Simultaneous failure of multiple critical assets during peak demand	IoT maintenance systems hijacked or disabled	Real-time O&M dashboards and anomaly detection using AI
1.5	Fuel Supply Chain Management	Fuel supply disruption due to geopolitical or logistical crisis	Hacked GPS/logistics tracking disrupting deliveries	Dual-source fuel contracts and real-time supply chain tracking
1.6	Water Intake, Treatment, and Cooling Systems	Heatwave reducing water availability, impairing cooling capacity	ICS disruption of automated water control valves	Water resource contingency planning and cyber-secured water treatment control
1.7	Environmental Monitoring and Compliance	Breach of emissions or discharge limits, causing regulatory action	Data spoofing of environmental sensors	Third-party environmental audits and tamper-proof monitoring systems
1.8	Remote Monitoring and SCADA Systems	Complete SCADA system lockout due to ransomware attack	Direct threat vector for cyberattacks on plant operations	Network segmentation, endpoint detection, and response systems (EDR)
1.9	Emergency and Black Start Capabilities	National grid collapse requiring an unscheduled black start	HMI (Human-Machine Interface) sabotage delays the restart	Periodic black start simulation and offline testing of backup systems
1.10	Health, Safety, and Emergency Response (HSE)	Major on-site accident involving hazardous materials	Disruption of emergency comms or incident tracking systems	Site-wide safety drills and digital twin models for emergency simulations
1.11	Regulatory Compliance and Licensing	Failure to comply with updated Grid Codes or Energy Commission mandates	Loss or manipulation of regulatory documentation	Legal compliance tracking software and digital archiving
1.12	Technical Asset Performance & Reliability Analytics	Data corruption leading to incorrect reliability predictions	Data integrity breach in analytics platforms	Use of blockchain for asset data integrity and cross-verification checks
1.13	Engineering and Technical Support Services	Inability to mobilise technical teams during a crisis	Cyber disruption of support ticketing or knowledge base	Cloud-based service continuity plans and backup comms platforms
1.14	Integrated Operations Control Centres (IOCC)	Simultaneous multi-plant cyberattack coordinated via compromised IOCC	Central command vulnerability due to ICT convergence	24/7 SOC (Security Operations Centre) integration with IOCC and network isolation protocols

The scenarios outlined in this chapter offer a forward-looking perspective on how complex disruptions—whether technological, environmental, or cyber in nature—could impair Malakoff's ability to maintain continuous electricity generation and distribution.

By integrating cyber and ICT risks into operational planning and documenting mitigation efforts, the organisation not only complies with resilience standards but also builds organisational confidence and preparedness.

These efforts reinforce Malakoff’s commitment to ensuring the reliability, safety, and security of Malaysia’s critical energy infrastructure.

Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

Case Study: Malakoff Corporation Berhad

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