[BCM] [MBS] [E3] [RAR] [T3] Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

[Business Impact Analysis] [Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment]

Bann_BCM_RAR_Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Part 3: RAR - Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment for MBS

Introduction

[BCM] [GEN] [E3] [RAR] [T3] Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

The Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment is an essential component of the Risk Analysis and Review (RAR) phase in Business Continuity Management (BCM).

For an organization such as Marina Bay Sands (MBS), which operates as a world-class integrated resort comprising hospitality, retail, entertainment, conventions, and casino operations, the identification and assessment of risks must be precise and comprehensive.

This process involves evaluating threats in terms of their impact across multiple dimensions (finance, operations, legal, regulatory, reputation, people, social responsibility, and assets/IT systems) and assessing the likelihood of their occurrence. By doing so, MBS is better positioned to prioritize risk treatments, allocate resources effectively, and ensure resilience during disruptive incidents.

The assessment framework aligns with the ISO 22301 standard and follows BCM Institute’s methodology, ensuring that MBS maintains its operational stability while safeguarding stakeholders’ confidence and its global brand reputation.

Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment Table for MBS

Threat

Impact Area - Finance

Impact Area - Operations

Impact Area - Legal & Regulatory

Impact Area - Reputation & Image

Impact Area - Social Responsibility

Impact Area - People

Impact Area - Assets/IT Systems/Information

Risk Impact Area (Highest Numeric Score)

Risk Likelihood

Risk Rating

Risk Level

Expected Period of Disruption

Pandemic Outbreak (e.g., COVID-19)

Severe loss of revenue due to closure of casino, hotels, F&B, and events

Full suspension of operations

Compliance with government-mandated closures and health regulations

Significant global brand damage if poorly managed

Public health responsibility to prevent spread

Health and safety of employees and guests compromised

IT strain from increased online demand, need for digital customer engagement

Finance (5)

High

Extreme

Critical

Months (6–12)

Terrorist Attack or Bomb Threat

Substantial financial losses due to prolonged closure and recovery

Complete shutdown of affected facilities

Possible non-compliance with safety standards

International media coverage damaging brand trust

Failure to ensure guest safety affects corporate social license

Risk of casualties among employees and guests

Physical destruction of assets, possible IT system disruption

People (5)

Medium

High

Severe

Weeks to Months

Cybersecurity Breach (Data Theft, Ransomware)

Regulatory fines and compensation costs

Disruption of casino, hotel booking, and payment systems

Breach of data protection laws (e.g., PDPA, GDPR)

Loss of guest trust in digital platforms

Responsibility for safeguarding customer data

Employee and customer personal data compromised

Critical IT systems compromised (payments, loyalty, reservations)

Assets/IT Systems (5)

High

Extreme

Critical

Days to Weeks

Natural Disaster (Flood, Fire, Earthquake)

Property damage, repair, and insurance claims

Interruption of hotel, retail, and casino operations

Compliance with workplace safety regulations

Negative publicity on safety and preparedness

Impact on community welfare and employees’ families

Safety risk to staff and guests

Structural damage, IT equipment destruction

Operations (5)

Low

Medium

Moderate

Weeks

Supply Chain Disruption (Food, Retail, Event Supplies)

Increased costs for alternatives, potential revenue loss

Inability to provide F&B, retail, and convention services

Possible contractual breaches with suppliers

Dissatisfaction from guests and partners

Reduced ability to support local communities

Staff unable to perform due to lack of resources

Disruption in stock and service continuity

Operations (4)

Medium

Moderate

Days to Weeks

Regulatory or Legal Non-Compliance (e.g., Gaming laws, PDPA)

Fines, penalties, suspension of licenses

Casino and operations may be halted

Breach of regulatory frameworks

Reputational loss in global gaming and hospitality markets

Perception of poor governance

Employees’ roles impacted if licenses are suspended

IT/data-related breaches tied to compliance

Legal & Regulatory (5)

Medium

High

Severe

Weeks to Months

Fire Safety Incident (Localised Fire)

Revenue loss due to evacuation and temporary closure

Temporary halt to affected sections (casino, hotel wing)

Regulatory investigations, fines for safety lapses

Public perception of unsafe environment

Impact on customer and staff well-being

Employee and guest injuries

Damage to physical assets, IT hardware

Assets (4)

Low

Medium

Moderate

Days to Weeks

Labour Disputes or Staff Shortages

Higher labor costs, potential revenue impact

Service delivery delays in hotels, F&B, conventions

Possible non-compliance with labor laws

Damage to employer brand, negative media

Impact on corporate responsibility as major employer

Staff morale and turnover affected

HR/Payroll IT system disruption

People (4)

Medium

Moderate

Days to Weeks

Summing Up ...

The Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment for Marina Bay Sands (MBS) highlights the multi-dimensional threats that could disrupt its integrated resort operations.

The analysis demonstrates that pandemic outbreaks, cybersecurity breaches, terrorist threats, and regulatory non-compliance represent the most severe risks due to their high impact across finance, people, and IT systems and their potential for long-term disruption.

Through this structured assessment, MBS is equipped to prioritize risks requiring immediate mitigation strategies, such as strengthening cybersecurity resilience, enhancing public health readiness, and reinforcing regulatory compliance programs.

Additionally, medium-level risks such as supply chain disruptions, labour disputes, and localized fire incidents must be addressed through contingency planning and operational flexibility.

By integrating these insights into its broader Business Continuity Management (BCM) framework, MBS can reinforce resilience, safeguard its reputation as a premier global destination, and ensure continuity of service excellence even during disruptive events.

More Information About Business Continuity Management Courses

To learn more about the course and schedule, click the buttons below for the BCM-300 Business Continuity Management Implementer [BCM-3] and the BCM-5000 Business Continuity Management Expert Implementer [BCM-5].