---
title: [OR] [MBT] [E3] [CBS] [6] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios
description: [OR] [MBT] [E3] [CBS] [6] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios
image: https://blog.bcm-institute.org/hubfs/Metrobank%20PH%20Graphic%20Folder/Metrobank%20E3%20Morepost/Metrobank%20CBS%206/%5BOR%5D%20%5BMBT%5D%20%5BE3%5D%20%5BCBS%5D%20%5B6%5D%20%5BSuPS%5D%20Identify%20Severe%20but%20Plausible%20Scenarios.jpg
---
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###### Building Resilient Banking Operations: The Metrobank Operational Resilience Implementation Guide
# \[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[SuPS\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios
[](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/87e7f49d-dbef-4f23-931f-4a1f511f70bf)
This section identifies severe but plausible scenarios for Metrobank’s CBS-6 Treasury and Capital Markets Operations.
In the context of operational resilience, a severe but plausible scenario represents a high-impact disruption that, while unlikely, remains realistic and within the realm of credible risk exposure.
These scenarios test the organisation’s capacity to maintain continuity of Treasury and capital market functions during extreme stress, safeguarding liquidity, market stability, regulatory compliance, and customer confidence.
The scenarios align with Metrobank’s regulatory obligations and industry best practices, with explicit integration of cyber and ICT risks where relevant.
### [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c9c3fddf-009e-4d50-b91c-b18d1228e9ef)
[Moh Heng Goh](https://blog.bcm-institute.org/ebook-or/author/moh-heng-goh) Nov 27, 2025
###### Operational Resilience Certified Planner-Specialist-Expert
### [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/2196d2c2-e6e2-49b4-ba01-e7d03071dd00)
### [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c9c3fddf-009e-4d50-b91c-b18d1228e9ef)**CBS-6 Treasury and Capital Markets Operations**
[![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[SuPS\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/2888e7b3-4111-4d59-9125-b65619bf9a37.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/2888e7b3-4111-4d59-9125-b65619bf9a37)
This section identifies severe but plausible scenarios for Metrobank’s CBS-6 Treasury and Capital Markets Operations.
In the context of operational resilience, a severe but plausible scenario represents a high-impact disruption that, while unlikely, remains realistic and within the realm of credible risk exposure.
These scenarios test the organisation’s capacity to maintain continuity of Treasury and capital market functions during extreme stress, safeguarding liquidity, market stability, regulatory compliance, and customer confidence.
The scenarios align with Metrobank’s regulatory obligations and industry best practices, with explicit integration of cyber and ICT risks where relevant.
[![Banner \[Table\] \[OR\] \[E3\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/f4f3c007-e864-48cd-8bc1-0242c8b7fd86.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/f4f3c007-e864-48cd-8bc1-0242c8b7fd86)
##### Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-6
| Sub-CBS Code | Sub-CBS | Impact/Effect | Severe but Plausible Scenario | Proactive Risk Management Action | Link to Integration of Cyber and ICT Risks |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6.1 | Liquidity and Cash Management | Funding disruption, liquidity squeeze, delayed settlements | Sudden systemic liquidity crisis triggered by market volatility and mass withdrawals | Establish stress-tested contingency funding plans, enhance intraday liquidity monitoring, and diversify funding sources | Real-time liquidity dashboards with cyber-resilient infrastructure and DDoS-resistant connectivity to payment networks |
| 6.2 | Money Market Operations | Inability to rollover short-term funding, counterparty settlement delays | Failure of major counterparties during a sharp market downturn | Counterparty exposure monitoring, collateral stress testing, and diversifying counterparty mix | Secure automated exposure reporting and firmwide cyber-protection around interbank messaging |
| 6.3 | Foreign Exchange (FX) Trading and Settlement | Market loss, FX settlement failure (Herstatt risk) | Disruption in global FX clearing systems due to a geopolitical or cyber incident | Pre-funding arrangements, multi-venue settlement capability, and CLS participation | Cyber-secure FX trading interfaces and multilayer authentication for global clearing access |
| 6.4 | Fixed Income and Securities Trading | Price dislocation, failed trades, market liquidity freeze | Sovereign bond market freeze due to a rating downgrade or an economic shock | Liquidity buffers, diversified investment holdings, and market circuit-breaker monitoring | Secure, redundant pricing feeds and resilient connectivity to trading venues |
| 6.5 | Derivatives Trading and Risk Management | Hedging ineffectiveness, margin call stress | Rapid spikes in volatility trigger extraordinary margin calls | Margin stress simulations, collateral optimisation tools, counterparty credit limit controls | Cyber-secure risk analytics platforms and automated anomaly alerts for trading systems |
| 6.6 | Treasury Operations and Back-Office Support | Processing delays, failed confirmations | Operational outage causing settlement backlog across Treasury instruments | Manual fallback workflows, dual-site settlement operations, enhanced workforce cross-training | Backup systems, secure remote access, and ransomware-proof reconciliation processes |
| 6.7 | Collateral and Margin Management | Collateral shortfalls, regulatory breach | A major exchange outage is preventing margin transfers | Pre-approved alternative collateral channels, collateral pooling, and regulatory liaison protocols | Secure collateral management system integration with redundancy and monitored API connections |
| 6.8 | Treasury Risk Monitoring and Compliance | Missed limit breaches, non-compliance fines | Prolonged disruption to trading surveillance and risk reporting systems | Manual limit monitoring, pre-defined escalation triggers, enhanced scenario-based training | Cyber-hardened surveillance platforms and real-time monitoring of system integrity |
| 6.9 | Investment Portfolio Management | Portfolio value erosion, forced liquidations | Flash crash affecting fixed-income and FX markets simultaneously | Dynamic asset-allocation models, stress testing, liquidity overlay strategies | ICT-resilient portfolio systems with ISO-aligned cyber-security controls |
| 6.10 | Market Data and Pricing Support | Incorrect valuations, trade mispricing | Critical pricing vendor outage or corrupted data feed | Secondary data providers, internal pricing engines, robust vendor SLA governance | Resilient market-data gateways, automated cyber-threat scanning for data poisoning |
[![Banner \[Summing\] \[OR\] \[E3\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/446ccb83-e056-40d0-aae5-834d73c13f43.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/446ccb83-e056-40d0-aae5-834d73c13f43)
The severe but plausible scenarios outlined in this chapter demonstrate the necessity for robust, stress-tested response mechanisms within Metrobank’s Treasury and capital markets functions.
By proactively defining extreme yet credible scenarios, Metrobank enhances its resilience posture, supports regulatory compliance, and protects market integrity.
The integration of cyber and ICT risks across all Treasury processes reflects the evolving threat landscape.
It reinforces the strategic imperative of technology resilience, secure financial infrastructure, and real-time risk visibility.
This thematic approach ensures Treasury operations remain capable of withstanding systemic shocks, operational disruptions, and cyber-driven crises while maintaining continuity of critical financial services.
| Building Resilient Banking Operations: The Metrobank Operational Resilience Implementation Guide | | | | | |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **eBook 3: Starting Your OR Implementation** | | | | | |
| **CBS-6 Treasury and Capital Markets Operations** | | | | | |
| **CBS-6 DP** | **CBS-6 MD** | **CBS-6 MPR** | **CBS-6 ITo** | **CBS-6 SuPS** | **CBS-6 ST** |
| [![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[DP\] Treasury and Capital Markets Operations](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/f44e0912-887a-4e1e-a815-4316bd7f60f1.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/f44e0912-887a-4e1e-a815-4316bd7f60f1) | [![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[MD\] Map Dependency](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/c4c144c9-a25f-48ed-9f19-8c0264ba4120.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c4c144c9-a25f-48ed-9f19-8c0264ba4120) | [![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[MPR\] Map Processes and Resources](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/b195a136-29d8-4140-8348-86ef0a3183b0.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/b195a136-29d8-4140-8348-86ef0a3183b0) | [![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[ITo\] Establish Impact Tolerances](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/295bdd87-307b-433a-9b5d-9bc148cf1097.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/295bdd87-307b-433a-9b5d-9bc148cf1097) | [![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[SuPS\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/2888e7b3-4111-4d59-9125-b65619bf9a37.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/2888e7b3-4111-4d59-9125-b65619bf9a37) | [![\[OR\] \[MBT\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[6\] \[ST\] Perform Scenario Testing](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/286d5568-e43c-49cf-a429-2eb529f5d2b8.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/286d5568-e43c-49cf-a429-2eb529f5d2b8) |
[](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/084e620a-46c5-419a-82ed-6a681d15c0b6)Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.
#### More Information About OR-5000 \[OR-5\] or OR-300 \[OR-3\]
To learn more about the course and schedule, click the buttons below for the OR-300 Operational Resilience Implementer course and the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course.
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| [![\[BL-OR\] \[3\] FAQ OR-300](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/f20c71b4-f5e8-4aa5-8056-c374ca33a091.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/f20c71b4-f5e8-4aa5-8056-c374ca33a091) | If you have any questions, click to contact us.[![Email to Sales Team \[BCM Institute\]](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/3c53daeb-2836-4843-b0e0-645baee2ab9e.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/3c53daeb-2836-4843-b0e0-645baee2ab9e) | [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/7f2718a4-ea80-4f84-a319-dc2d4df37a46) |
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