[OR] [MBT] [E3] [CBS] [3] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services

Operational resilience requires organisations like Metrobank to anticipate and prepare for disruptive events that, while unlikely, can cause significant service interruption if they were to occur.

These events, referred to as "severe but plausible scenarios," test the limits of a service's operational readiness, ensuring that businesses can continue to meet their essential needs under stress.

In the case of Metrobank's CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services, this chapter outlines scenarios that address both technological vulnerabilities and physical threats. The focus is on disruptions that could affect customers’ access to cash, whether through ATMs or over-the-counter services.

Appended is a table showing the recommended "Severe but Plausible Scenarios" for each detailed process of CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services:

Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-3

Sub-CBS Code	Sub-CBS	Severe but Plausible Scenario	Impact/Effect	Proactive Risk Management Action
3.1	ATM Cash Withdrawal Services	ATM network failure due to a cyberattack (e.g., Distributed Denial of Service attack).	Disruption of customer access to cash due to ATM network failure.	Regular cybersecurity audits, implementation of advanced DDoS protection protocols.
3.2	Branch Cash Withdrawal Services	Cash vault breach resulting in theft, accompanied by an internal system outage.	Loss of cash and damage to the bank's reputation due to physical theft and system outage.	CCTV surveillance, strict employee access controls, and periodic system testing for vulnerabilities.
3.3	Cash Deposit Services	Misrouting of cash deposits due to fraudulent employee activity or a system glitch.	Mishandling or loss of funds and potential customer dissatisfaction.	Biometric authentication for deposit transactions, employee background checks, and system redundancy.
3.4	Cash Handling and Replenishment	Physical theft of cash during transport or delivery, coordinated with an IT disruption.	Significant financial loss and operational disruption due to theft or fraud.	GPS tracking for cash transport vehicles and real-time monitoring of the cash replenishment process.
3.5	ATM Maintenance and Troubleshooting	Extended downtime of ATMs due to simultaneous hardware failure across regions.	Extended ATM downtime is affecting customer access to services.	Preventive maintenance schedules, replacement parts inventory, and remote diagnostics.

This table provides a comprehensive overview of each sub-CBS in Metrobank's CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services, highlighting the impact, scenarios, and risk management actions, while linking them to cyber and ICT risks integration.

Banner [Summing] [OR] [E3] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

By identifying and preparing for severe but plausible scenarios in CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services, Metrobank can bolster its operational resilience.

These scenarios, while challenging, are necessary to evaluate the organization’s ability to withstand significant disruptions. Effective management includes proactive measures like cyber risk integration, physical security protocols, and robust system maintenance, ensuring continuity in essential services.

It is crucial for Metrobank to regularly update its risk management actions, integrating lessons learned from simulated tests and evolving threats, to ensure that CBS-3 can effectively weather unforeseen events.

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Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

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[OR] [MBT] [E3] [CBS] [3] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

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CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services

Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-3

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Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-3

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CBS-3 ATM and Branch Cash Services