[OR] [GI] [E3] [CBS] [2] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

CBS-2 Delivery / Logistics / Parcel Services (GrabExpress, last-mile delivery)

Summing Up …

Introduction

Concluding Paragraph

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Purpose of the Chapter

The delivery and logistics operations of GrabExpress form a cornerstone of Grab Indonesia’s critical business services, directly impacting customer satisfaction and organisational reputation.

In today’s complex operating environment, these services are exposed to a wide range of potential disruptions, including technological failures, cyber threats, operational bottlenecks, and external hazards.

This chapter is designed to pre-emptively explore Severe but Plausible Scenarios that could significantly affect the performance and continuity of GrabExpress services.

By doing so, it provides readers with a structured understanding of the vulnerabilities inherent in last-mile delivery operations and the interdependencies between processes, technology, people, and third-party partners.

The primary purpose of this chapter is to help readers understand the rationale and methodology for identifying severe but plausible disruptions in critical business services.

By the end of the chapter, readers are expected to recognise the types of risks that could impact GrabExpress, appreciate the integration of cyber and ICT considerations in operational resilience, and learn how proactive mitigation measures are applied to maintain service continuity.

This foundational understanding prepares the reader to make informed decisions in risk planning, resource allocation, and contingency management.

Here’s a detailed table outlining Severe but Plausible Scenarios for each Sub-CBS of Grab Indonesia’s CBS-2 Delivery / Logistics / Parcel Services (GrabExpress), including links to cyber/ICT risks and evidence of proactive risk management:

Sub-CBS Code	Sub-Critical Business Service	Severe but Plausible Scenario	Integration of Cyber & ICT Risks	Evidence of Proactive Risk Management
CBS-2.1	Order / Booking & Quotation	Platform downtime during peak hours prevents order placement	Cyberattack on the booking platform, DDoS, or system glitch	Load testing, redundancy, real-time monitoring, and multi-cloud failover
CBS-2.2	Pickup & Collection	Mass failure of the pickup scheduling system; courier unavailability	ICT failure in the dispatch software or GPS tracking disruption	Automated fallback scheduling, backup driver pool, geo-redundant system
CBS-2.3	Routing & Transit (Last-Mile / Inter/First Mile)	Major route disruption due to traffic gridlock, natural disaster, or routing software error	Routing algorithm failure, GPS spoofing	Route optimisation simulations, alternative route planning, and real-time traffic integration
CBS-2.4	Delivery / Drop-Off	Multiple deliveries are delayed or lost due to operational mishandling or a courier strike	Mobile app or tracking system outage affecting delivery updates	Courier training, automated alerts, SLA monitoring, backup delivery partners
CBS-2.5	Returns / Reverse Logistics	Spike in return volumes exceeding processing capacity	ICT system delays in processing returns	Predictive return analytics, scalable processing workflows
CBS-2.6	Customer Support / Exceptions Handling	Influx of support tickets following system outage or high-profile delivery failure	CRM or ticketing system crash	Multi-channel support, automated chatbot triage, escalation protocols
CBS-2.7	Fleet / Partner Management	Key partner fleet unavailable due to financial/operational issues	Partner management system data breach or miscommunication	Regular partner audits, fleet redundancy, and ICT integration for partner monitoring
CBS-2.8	Pricing, Billing & Payments	Billing errors affecting large customer segments; payment gateway outage	Payment system hack, ransomware, or transaction API failure	Payment reconciliation automation, dual gateway setup, and fraud detection
CBS-2.9	Tracking, Visibility & Information Systems	Tracking system failure, loss of package visibility for customers	Cyberattack on tracking database or cloud outage	Real-time backup dashboards, end-to-end encryption, and system failover
CBS-2.10	Regulatory, Safety, and Compliance	Regulatory fines or operational suspension due to non-compliance	Data breach or an ICT system violating regulatory standards	Compliance monitoring tools, regular audits, automated reporting
CBS-2.11	Continuous Improvement & Innovation	Delay in implementing innovation due to cyber/ICT disruption	R&D system compromised, IP theft	Version control, secure collaboration platforms, innovation roadmap risk assessment

Identifying Severe but Plausible Scenarios is a critical step in ensuring Grab Indonesia’s operational resilience for GrabExpress.

By mapping each Sub-CBS to potential high-impact disruptions—ranging from technological failures, cyber incidents, partner unavailability, and natural disasters—management can proactively plan mitigation strategies.

Integrating cyber and ICT risks ensures that digital dependencies are accounted for, while evidence of proactive risk management demonstrates readiness through monitoring, redundancy, and contingency protocols.

This comprehensive approach strengthens GrabExpress’s ability to maintain critical service levels, protect customer trust, and comply with operational resilience expectations even under extreme conditions.

The chapter presents a detailed table of each Sub-Critical Business Service (Sub-CBS) within GrabExpress, outlining potential high-impact scenarios that are both severe and plausible. Each scenario is linked to cyber and ICT risks, emphasising the importance of technological resilience in modern logistics operations.

Additionally, the table highlights proactive risk management actions currently implemented to mitigate these risks, such as system redundancies, automated monitoring, alternative routing, and partner audits.

By systematically analysing each Sub-CBS, the chapter equips readers with a practical framework to anticipate operational challenges and prepare effective response strategies that align with organisational resilience objectives.

Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

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CBS-2 Delivery / Logistics / Parcel Services (GrabExpress, last-mile delivery)

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