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Operational Resilience in Practice: The CIMB Bank Approach
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[OR] [CIMB] [E3] [CBS] [1] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

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Severe but plausible scenarios (SbPS) are hypothetical yet realistic events that could significantly disrupt critical business services. For CBS‑1: Retail & Digital Banking Access, these scenarios help CIMB Bank anticipate extreme operational, technological, or cyber events that could impact customer access, transactions, and data integrity.

Linking these scenarios with cyber and ICT risks ensures that the bank’s resilience planning addresses both operational and digital threats. Proactive risk management actions — such as system redundancy, cyber monitoring, and staff training — allow the organization to reduce the likelihood and impact of these scenarios while maintaining regulatory compliance.

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Dr Goh Moh Heng
Operational Resilience Certified Planner-Specialist-Expert
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CBS-1 Retail & Digital Banking Access

Introduction

[OR] [GEN] [E3] [CBS] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible ScenariosSevere but plausible scenarios (SbPS) are hypothetical yet realistic events that could significantly disrupt critical business services. For CBS‑1: Retail & Digital Banking Access, these scenarios help CIMB Bank anticipate extreme operational, technological, or cyber events that could impact customer access, transactions, and data integrity.

Linking these scenarios with cyber and ICT risks ensures that the bank’s resilience planning addresses both operational and digital threats. Proactive risk management actions — such as system redundancy, cyber monitoring, and staff training — allow the organization to reduce the likelihood and impact of these scenarios while maintaining regulatory compliance.

Banner [Table] [OR] [E3] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1

Sub‑CBS Code

Sub‑CBS

Severe but Plausible Scenario

Impact / Effect

Proactive Risk Management Action

Link to Integration of Cyber & ICT Risks

1.1

Online Banking Login & Authentication

The multi-factor authentication system fails due to a software bug

Customers cannot log in; loss of trust

Implement secondary authentication channels, redundancy testing

Authentication systems are key ICT control points; monitor for cyber tampering

1.2

Account Dashboard & Balance Inquiry

Core database replication failure during peak hours

Incorrect balance display, delayed transactions

Strengthen database replication and real-time monitoring

Database availability linked to ICT systems; integrate cyber monitoring for data integrity

1.3

Funds Transfer & Payment Services

Payment gateway disruption or SWIFT/FAST network outage

Delayed or failed transactions; regulatory reporting breach

Establish alternative routing, DR failover, and transaction queuing

Payment engines interact with ICT networks, monitor for cyber fraud and DDoS

1.4

Mobile App Transaction Processing

Mobile API backend crash due to a surge in traffic or a cyberattack

Transactions fail; mobile app inaccessible

Auto-scale microservices, DDoS mitigation, penetration testing

Mobile backend APIs integrate ICT risk monitoring and incident response

1.5

Retail Digital Onboarding

Digital identity verification provider outage

New accounts cannot be opened; KYC delays

Maintain backup verification providers; offline onboarding process

KYC verification relies on ICT integration with third-party systems; monitor for data breaches

1.6

Digital Alerts & Notification Services

Messaging server outage or telecom network failure

Alerts and notifications delayed; potential regulatory breach

Redundant alert systems; multi-channel messaging

ICT risk integration via monitoring of messaging servers and secure delivery channels

1.7

Customer Support & Chatbot Interface

Chatbot AI service is offline due to a cyber incident or software failure

Increased call center load; delayed customer response

Failover to human support, system monitoring, and AI redundancy

Chatbot systems are ICT-dependent; integrate cyber threat detection

1.8

API Gateway & Third-Party Integrations

Third-party API provider outage or compromise

Partner services fail; data access is disrupted

API failover, SLA review, cybersecurity monitoring

APIs are critical ICT touchpoints; monitor for data leakage or unauthorized access

1.9

Access Monitoring & Security Event Logging

SIEM system outage or cyber compromise

Security blind spots; delayed incident response

Redundant logging, off-site event storage, and continuous monitoring

Direct ICT risk link; cyber threat intelligence feeds integrated

1.10

Back-End Data Synchronisation & Recovery

Disaster recovery site unavailable during primary site outage

Data loss, extended downtime

Test DR plans, cloud replication, real-time sync

Data replication and recovery are heavily ICT-dependent; cyber resilience planning is essential

Banner [Summing] [OR] [E3] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Identifying severe but plausible scenarios for Retail & Digital Banking Access allows CIMB Bank to anticipate extreme but credible events and implement mitigating measures before disruptions occur. Linking each scenario to cyber and ICT risks ensures comprehensive resilience planning that addresses operational and digital threats simultaneously.

Proactive risk management actions — including redundancy, monitoring, failover, and vendor management — strengthen the bank’s capacity to maintain service continuity, protect customer trust, and comply with regulatory expectations as outlined in the 2025 BNM Discussion Paper. Regular scenario reviews further enhance preparedness and support informed decision-making under operational stress.

 

 

Operational Resilience in Practice: The CIMB Bank Approach
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For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

 



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Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

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