---
title: [OR] [CBC] [E3] [CBS] [1] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios
description: [OR] [BDO] [E3] [CBS] [1] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios
image: https://blog.bcm-institute.org/hubfs/PH%20Bank%20Graphic%20Folder/%5BPH%5D%20China%20Banking%20Corporation%20Graphic%20Folder/CBC%20CBS%201%20Morepost/%5BOR%5D%20%5BCBC%5D%20%5BPH%5D%20%5BE3%5D%20%5BCBS%5D%20%5B1%5D%20%5BSuPS%5D%20Deposit%20and%20Account%20Services.jpg
---
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###### Operational Resilience in Practice: The China Bank Approach
# \[OR\] \[CBC\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[SuPS\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios
[![x \[OR\] \[CBC\] Title Banner](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/2469e9c7-8c26-46be-a40f-832d893e9227.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/2469e9c7-8c26-46be-a40f-832d893e9227)
In alignment with the expectations of Bangko Sentral ng [![x \[PH\] \[CBC\] Logo](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/450424e7-f0ae-4e04-af63-6591ae4ec2a7.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/450424e7-f0ae-4e04-af63-6591ae4ec2a7)Pilipinas under *Circular No. 1203 Series of 2024 (Operational Resilience Guidelines)*, financial institutions such as China Bank are required to identify **Severe but Plausible Scenarios (SuPS)** that could disrupt their **Critical Business Services (CBS)**.
These scenarios must go beyond traditional disaster recovery assumptions and consider extreme yet realistic disruptions, including cyber-attacks, third-party failures, technology outages, and operational breakdowns.
For **CBS-1 Deposit and Account Services**, the identification of such scenarios ensures that China Bank can assess vulnerabilities across the service lifecycle—from onboarding to transaction processing and reporting—and demonstrate resilience within defined **impact tolerances**.
The table below outlines recommended severe but plausible scenarios, their potential impacts, proactive risk management actions, and how they integrate with **Cyber and ICT Risk Management**, consistent with regulatory expectations and BCM Institute guidance.
### [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c9c3fddf-009e-4d50-b91c-b18d1228e9ef)
[Moh Heng Goh](https://blog.bcm-institute.org/ebook-or/author/moh-heng-goh) Apr 16, 2026
###### Operational Resilience Certified Planner-Specialist-Expert
### [![x \[OR\] \[CBC\] Legal Disclaimer Banner](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/2dcb376b-223f-4162-a06a-b8712ddcf5ff.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/2dcb376b-223f-4162-a06a-b8712ddcf5ff)
### [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c9c3fddf-009e-4d50-b91c-b18d1228e9ef)**CBS-1 Retail Deposit & Account Services**
#### Introduction
[](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/b82f4b68-92a3-4741-a22a-c2df4a0479f2)
In alignment with the expectations of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas under *Circular No. 1203 Series of 2024 (Operational Resilience Guidelines)*, financial institutions such as China Bank are required to identify **Severe but Plausible Scenarios (SuPS)** that could disrupt their **Critical Business Services (CBS)**.
These scenarios must go beyond traditional disaster recovery assumptions and consider extreme yet realistic disruptions, including cyber-attacks, third-party failures, technology outages, and operational breakdowns.
For **CBS-1 Deposit and Account Services**, the identification of such scenarios ensures that China Bank can assess vulnerabilities across the service lifecycle—from onboarding to transaction processing and reporting—and demonstrate resilience within defined **impact tolerances**.
The table below outlines recommended severe but plausible scenarios, their potential impacts, proactive risk management actions, and how they integrate with **Cyber and ICT Risk Management**, consistent with regulatory expectations and BCM Institute guidance.
[![Banner \[Table\] \[OR\] \[E3\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/f4f3c007-e864-48cd-8bc1-0242c8b7fd86.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/f4f3c007-e864-48cd-8bc1-0242c8b7fd86)
###### Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1
| **Sub-CBS Code** | **Sub-CBS** | **Severe but Plausible Scenario** | **Impact / Effect** | **Proactive Risk Management Action** | **Link to Integration of Cyber and ICT Risks** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1.1 | Customer Onboarding and Account Application | Digital onboarding platform outage due to cloud service failure | Inability to onboard new customers; reputational damage | Implement multi-region cloud redundancy; offline onboarding fallback | Cloud resilience, availability monitoring, third-party ICT risk |
| 1.2 | Customer Identification and Verification (KYC/CDD) | Failure of e-KYC vendor or biometric system compromise | Delays in onboarding; regulatory breaches (AML/KYC) | Maintain secondary KYC providers; manual verification procedures | Third-party cyber risk, identity system security |
| 1.3 | Account Approval and Opening | Core banking system approval workflow failure due to system bug | Account opening delays; backlog accumulation | Pre-production testing, automated workflow monitoring | Application resilience, SDLC security controls |
| 1.4 | Initial Funding and Deposit Booking | Payment gateway disruption or settlement system outage | Failed funding transactions; customer dissatisfaction | Integration with multiple payment channels; reconciliation buffers | Payment system cyber resilience, network dependency |
| 1.5 | Product Terms Setup and Account Parameter Maintenance | Unauthorized configuration changes due to privileged access compromise | Incorrect interest rates/fees; financial loss | Enforce privileged access management (PAM), dual controls | Identity access management (IAM), insider threat monitoring |
| 1.6 | Deposit Transactions Processing | Core banking outage during peak transaction period | Transaction delays; inability to process deposits | High-availability architecture; real-time monitoring; failover systems | Core banking resilience, infrastructure redundancy |
| 1.7 | Withdrawal and Funds Access Processing | ATM/POS network outage due to telecom failure or cyberattack | Customers unable to withdraw funds; reputational damage | Multi-network routing; telecom redundancy; cash contingency plans | Network resilience, DDoS protection |
| 1.8 | Account Servicing and Customer Maintenance | CRM system outage or data corruption incident | Inability to update customer records; service delays | Data backup, system replication, periodic integrity checks | Data resilience, backup and recovery controls |
| 1.9 | Interest, Fees, and Charges Processing | Batch processing failure due to system error or data corruption | Incorrect charges; financial discrepancies | Automated reconciliation; batch validation controls | Data integrity controls, processing system monitoring |
| 1.10 | Statement, Passbook, and Balance Reporting | Failure in reporting engine or data warehouse outage | Customers unable to access statements; compliance issues | Secondary reporting systems; data replication | Data warehouse resilience, reporting system security |
| 1.11 | Digital Account Access and Channel Integration | Mobile/online banking platform cyberattack (e.g., DDoS or ransomware) | Service unavailability; customer access disruption | Web application firewall (WAF), DDoS protection, incident response drills | Cyber resilience, application security, SOC monitoring |
| 1.12 | Reconciliation and Exception Management | Reconciliation system failure or delayed batch processing | Financial mismatches; operational risk exposure | Automated reconciliation tools; exception escalation workflows | Data processing resilience, audit trail monitoring |
| 1.13 | Fraud Detection and Transaction Monitoring | AI/AML monitoring system outage or model failure | Increased fraud risk; undetected suspicious transactions | Redundant fraud monitoring systems; manual review escalation | Cyber analytics resilience, AI model governance |
| 1.14 | Regulatory Reporting and Compliance Monitoring | Regulatory reporting system outage or data submission failure | Non-compliance penalties; regulatory sanctions | Pre-submission validation; backup reporting processes | Regulatory system resilience, secure data transmission |
| 1.15 | Incident Response, Business Continuity, and Service Recovery | Major cyberattack (e.g., ransomware) impacting multiple systems | Prolonged service outage; systemic operational disruption | Enterprise incident response plan; regular DR testing; cyber recovery strategy | Integrated cyber and BC/DR planning, SOC and CERT coordination |
[![Banner \[Summing\] \[OR\] \[E3\] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/446ccb83-e056-40d0-aae5-834d73c13f43.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/446ccb83-e056-40d0-aae5-834d73c13f43)
The identification of **Severe but Plausible Scenarios** for CBS-1 Deposit and Account Services enables China Bank to shift from a reactive to a **proactive operational resilience posture**.
By systematically analysing disruptions across people, process, technology, and third-party dependencies, the bank can ensure that its critical services remain within defined **impact tolerances**, even under extreme stress conditions.
Consistent with Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas guidelines, the integration of **Cyber and ICT risks** into each scenario is essential, reflecting the increasing convergence of operational resilience and cyber resilience.
Ultimately, these scenarios form the foundation for **scenario testing, resilience validation, and continuous improvement**, ensuring that China Bank can sustain trust, maintain regulatory compliance, and deliver uninterrupted services to its customers in times of crisis.
[![x \[OR\] \[BDO\] Title Banner](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/7cd9fce2-f5ee-45d0-8b58-a9d11edd3e9c.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/7cd9fce2-f5ee-45d0-8b58-a9d11edd3e9c)
| **eBook 3: Starting Your OR Implementation** | | | | | |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **CBS-1 Deposit & Account Services** | | | | | |
| **CBS-1 DP** | **CBS-1 MD** | **CBS-1 MPR** | **CBS-1 ITo** | **CBS-1 SuPS** | **CBS-1 ST** |
| [![\[OR\] \[BDO\] \[PH\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[DP\] Retail Deposit & Account Services](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/9ecaf9a8-a1b1-4d8c-ba7e-a7f2126a3f9e.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/9ecaf9a8-a1b1-4d8c-ba7e-a7f2126a3f9e) | [![\[OR\] \[BDO\] \[PH\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[MD\] Retail Deposit & Account Services](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/cc58e114-abef-4c4c-8473-5951e6953aa9.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/cc58e114-abef-4c4c-8473-5951e6953aa9) | [![\[OR\] \[BDO\] \[PH\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[MPR\] Retail Deposit & Account Services](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/23a5f245-0677-4aea-8a05-e4ced3a69fcd.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/23a5f245-0677-4aea-8a05-e4ced3a69fcd) | [![\[OR\] \[BDO\] \[PH\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[ITo\] Retail Deposit & Account Services](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/646bc62a-7023-4544-894f-67ccff7ae379.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/646bc62a-7023-4544-894f-67ccff7ae379) | [![\[OR\] \[BDO\] \[PH\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[SuPS\] Retail Deposit & Account Services](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/67e25ae3-3c4e-48d0-b6e7-ea5718dfa802.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/67e25ae3-3c4e-48d0-b6e7-ea5718dfa802) | [![\[OR\] \[BDO\] \[PH\] \[E3\] \[CBS\] \[1\] \[ST\] Retail Deposit & Account Services](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/e14ff2a1-48f2-4cd3-9924-d72a7bf84794.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/e14ff2a1-48f2-4cd3-9924-d72a7bf84794) |
[](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/084e620a-46c5-419a-82ed-6a681d15c0b6)
**Gain Competency:** For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the **OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course**, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.
#### More Information About OR-5000 \[OR-5\] or OR-300 \[OR-3\]
To learn more about the course and schedule, click the buttons below for the OR-300 Operational Resilience Implementer course and the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course.
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