[OR] [AmB] [E3] [CBS] [2] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Sub-CBS Code

Sub-CBS

Severe but Plausible Scenario

Impact / Effect

Proactive Risk Management Action

Link to Integration of Cyber and ICT Risks

2.1

Payment Initiation & Capture

Coordinated ransomware attack disables digital channels (mobile & internet banking) during the peak salary payment period

Customers unable to initiate payments; backlog of transactions; reputational damage

Channel redundancy, offline transaction capture, cyber incident response playbooks, and customer communication protocols

Cyber-attack on front-end applications, endpoint compromise, and ICT channel availability risk

2.2

Authorisation & Verification

Core authentication service outage due to identity access management (IAM) system failure

Payment authorisations halted; increased fraud risk if controls are bypassed

Segregated IAM architecture, manual override procedures with dual controls, and regular penetration testing

ICT identity systems failure; cyber risk to authentication and access controls

2.3

Clearing & Message Exchange

Failure of the SWIFT interface, combined with the delayed detection of message queue corruption

Payments stuck in clearing, interbank settlement delays, and regulatory reporting issues

SWIFT contingency connectivity, message integrity monitoring, reconciliation checkpoints

ICT middleware failure; cyber risk to data integrity and messaging infrastructure

2.4

Settlement Execution

Liquidity management system unavailable due to data centre outage during the interbank settlement window

Missed settlement deadlines; financial penalties; systemic contagion risk

Active-active data centres, pre-funded settlement buffers, BCP settlement runbooks

ICT infrastructure outage; cyber risk to core banking and settlement platforms

2.5

Reconciliation & Exception Handling

Cyber incident alters transaction logs, causing reconciliation mismatches across systems

Undetected financial discrepancies; delayed issue resolution; audit findings

Automated reconciliation tools, immutable logs, and cyber forensics capability

Cyber risk to data integrity, logging systems, and reconciliation engines

2.6

Fees, Charges & Accounting Posting

Batch processing failure due to malware in the accounting engine

Incorrect fee postings; customer complaints; financial misstatement risk

Batch job validation controls, malware scanning, and parallel run capability

ICT batch processing failure; cyber risk to financial posting systems

2.7

Reporting & Regulatory Compliance

Regulatory reporting system compromised by a data leakage incident

Inaccurate or delayed regulatory submissions; compliance breaches

Data loss prevention (DLP), regulatory reporting fallback templates, and compliance escalation protocols

Cyber risk to regulatory data confidentiality and reporting ICT systems

2.8

Customer Notification & Statement Updating

Mass notification system outage following cloud service provider failure

Customers unaware of payment status; surge in contact centre calls

Multi-vendor notification channels (SMS, email), pre-approved customer messaging, call-centre surge plans

Third-party ICT dependency risk; cyber and cloud service availability risk