[BCM] [CAS] [E3] [RAR] [T3] Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Part 3: RAR – Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Children’s Aid Society

The Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment is a critical component of the Risk Assessment and Review (RAR) process for the Children’s Aid Society. Building upon the threats identified in Part 1: RAR – List of Threats, this stage evaluates the potential consequences of each threat across multiple dimensions: financial, operational, legal and regulatory, reputation and image, social responsibility, people, and assets/IT systems/information. Each threat is analysed to determine the severity of its impact, the likelihood of occurrence, and the expected duration of disruption.

The objective of this assessment is to prioritise risks systematically, ensuring that the most severe and probable threats are identified and managed effectively. This structured approach enables the Children’s Aid Society to focus on areas of greatest vulnerability, ensuring continuity of care for its beneficiaries and compliance with statutory and social obligations.

Table: Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Threat

Impact Area - Finance

Impact Area - Operations

Impact Area - Legal & Regulatory

Impact Area - Reputation & Image

Impact Area - Social Responsibility

Impact Area - People

Impact Area - Assets/ IT Systems/ Information

Risk Impact Area (Highest Numeric Score)

Risk Likelihood

Risk Rating

Risk Level

Expected Period of Disruption

Fire at Residential Facilities

High

Severe disruption to residential care

Breach of fire safety regulations

Significant reputational damage

Major setback in fulfilling child welfare responsibilities

High injury/fatality risk

Loss of records & IT damage

Operations (5)

Medium

High

Weeks to Months

Pandemic / Infectious Disease Outbreak

High (medical costs, additional resources)

Severe disruption to care & schooling

Health & safety compliance issues

Public concern & loss of trust

Inability to provide safe care

High illness/fatality risk

Limited IT impact, except remote access strain

People (5)

High

Extreme

Months

Cybersecurity Breach (Data Theft)

Medium

Moderate impact on operations

Breach of PDPA and child protection laws

Loss of public and donor confidence

Trust deficit in safeguarding children’s information

Indirect stress to staff & residents

High risk to IT & confidential data

Assets/IT (5)

Medium

High

Weeks

Funding Cuts / Financial Instability

Severe

Reduced programs & staff

Breach of financial obligations

Negative media & donor concerns

Impaired ability to support children

Job insecurity

Limited IT impact

Finance (5)

Medium

High

Months

Staff Shortages / High Turnover

Medium

Service delivery disruption

Breach of care ratio compliance

Community concern

Reduced capacity to serve beneficiaries

High stress on remaining staff

Minimal IT impact

Operations (4)

High

Extreme

Weeks to Months

Natural Disaster (Flood, Storm)

High (property damage)

Severe facility disruption

Possible breach of building codes

Reputational concerns

Children’s safety compromised

High injury/displacement risk

Damage to IT infrastructure

Operations (5)

Low

Medium

Weeks

Legal / Regulatory Non-Compliance

Medium

Administrative burden

Fines, penalties, or closure risk

Reputational harm

Perceived lack of accountability

Staff stress

Limited IT impact

Legal & Regulatory (4)

Medium

Weeks

Security Breach / Intruder Incident

Medium

Disruption to safety & care

Legal consequences if harm occurs

Loss of community trust

Perception of unsafe environment

High trauma risk

Minor IT impact

People (5)

Low

Medium

Days to Weeks

Summing Up ...

The assessment reveals that the Children’s Aid Society faces a spectrum of risks ranging from operational disruptions (fire, natural disasters, staff shortages) to compliance and reputational threats (cybersecurity, regulatory breaches). Among these, pandemics and staff shortages are assessed as Extreme risks due to their high likelihood and critical impact on people and operations. Risks such as funding instability, cybersecurity breaches, and fire hazards are rated High, requiring robust treatment strategies to mitigate long-term consequences.

By mapping risks against their impact and likelihood, the organisation gains clarity on prioritisation, ensuring resources are allocated effectively to areas where disruptions could be most damaging. This risk-based approach strengthens the resilience of the Children’s Aid Society, safeguarding its mission to provide a safe, nurturing, and supportive environment for children in need.

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