[CM] [PM] [P2] Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment - Charting Your Course Through Potential Threats

Mapping Your Threat Landscape

Phase 2: Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment is critical in building a robust crisis management plan.

This chapter equips you to identify potential threats, both internal and external, that could disrupt your organisation's operations. 

Brainstorming a wide range of crisis scenarios, from natural disasters to cyberattacks, gives you a comprehensive understanding of your threat landscape.

The next step involves analysing each scenario's likelihood and potential impact on your organisation.  A likelihood vs. impact matrix is a valuable tool to prioritise these risks, allowing you to focus your planning efforts on the highest-risk scenarios.

Phase 2: Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment

No organisation is immune to crisis. Phase 2: Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment equips you to identify potential threats, specifically crisis scenarios, assess their likelihood and impact, and ultimately prioritise the risks your organisation needs to prepare for most effectively.

Proactively mapping your threat landscape gives you a crucial advantage in developing a comprehensive crisis management plan.

Identifying Potential Crisis Scenarios

The first step is to brainstorm and list potential crisis scenarios that could disrupt your operations. Consider both internal and external threats, including:

• Natural Disasters. Floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters can disrupt operations, damage infrastructure, and result in substantial financial losses.
• Technological Disruptions. Cyberattacks, power outages, and system failures can cripple IT infrastructure and hinder communication capabilities.
• Public Relations Crises. Product recalls, data breaches, and safety hazards can damage your organisation's reputation and erode public trust.
• Workplace Violence. Active shooter situations, disgruntled employees, and workplace harassment can pose significant threats to employee safety and security.
• Supply Chain Disruptions. Disruptions due to natural disasters, political instability, or economic factors can impact your ability to obtain critical materials and supplies.

Think Beyond the Obvious

Do not limit yourself to commonly known threats. Encourage your team to think creatively and consider less apparent scenarios that could impact your organisation.

Analysing Likelihood & Impact

Once you have identified potential crisis scenarios, analyse each crisis scenario's likelihood and potential impact on your organisation. Consider factors such as:

• Frequency. Has a similar crisis occurred in your industry or location before?
• Warning Signs. Are there any early warning signs that could indicate an impending crisis?
• Severity. How disruptive would this crisis be to your operations and revenue?
• Reputational Damage. Could this crisis damage your organisation's reputation and public trust?

Likelihood vs Impact Matrix

Utilise a likelihood vs. impact matrix to represent the potential risks associated with each crisis scenario visually. This tool allows you to prioritise your planning efforts, focusing on high-likelihood, high-impact scenarios that pose the greatest threat to your organisation.

Summing Up ...

Following the steps outlined in Phase 2: Crisis Scenario Risk Assessment can provide valuable insights into your organisation's threats.

This knowledge empowers you to move forward in the planning process, develop effective response strategies, and build a crisis management plan that safeguards your organisation's future.

Finally, Phase 2 identifies the critical business services and operations most affected by each potential crisis.  Understanding these vulnerabilities allows you to develop targeted response protocols that ensure the continuity of essential operations even during a crisis.  

By diligently completing this phase, you gain a clear picture of your organisation's risk landscape, empowering you to confidently build a crisis management plan that effectively safeguards your organisation's future.