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[OR] [SBC] [E3] [CBS] [1] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Written by Moh Heng Goh | Apr 2, 2026 8:48:46 AM

CBS-1 Retail Deposit & Account Services

Introduction

In alignment with the principles outlined in BSP Circular No. 1203 Series of 2024 and the BCM Institute’s guidance on Severe but Plausible Scenarios (SuPS), this chapter identifies credible disruption events that could significantly impact the delivery of Retail Deposit and Account Services (CBS-1).

These scenarios are not hypothetical extremes, but realistic, high-impact events that financial institutions in the Philippines must be prepared to withstand.

The objective is to ensure that each Sub-CBS is stress-tested against operational, cyber, third-party, and systemic risks. This supports the regulatory expectation that banks proactively identify vulnerabilities, assess their impact, and implement resilience measures—particularly those involving the integration of Cyber and ICT risks, as required under BSP guidelines.

 

Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1   

Sub-CBS Code

Sub-CBS

Severe but Plausible Scenario

Impact / Effect

Proactive Risk Management Action

Link to Integration of Cyber and ICT Risks

1.1

Customer Onboarding and Account Application

Prolonged outage of the digital onboarding platform due to cloud service failure

Inability to onboard new customers; revenue loss; reputational damage

Implement multi-region cloud redundancy; offline onboarding fallback

Cloud resilience, API gateway failure, digital channel outage

1.2

Customer Identification and Verification (KYC/CDD)

Failure of the eKYC/biometric verification system due to a cyberattack

Delayed or failed KYC checks; regulatory non-compliance risk

Deploy alternate KYC channels; strengthen identity verification security controls

Cyberattack on identity systems, data integrity compromise

1.3

Account Approval and Opening

Internal system processing error leading to mass account approval delays

Customer dissatisfaction; backlog; operational bottleneck

Introduce workflow automation controls and manual override procedures

Core banking system failure, workflow engine disruption

1.4

Initial Funding and Deposit Booking

The payment gateway outage is preventing initial funding transactions

Failed account activation; liquidity delays

Integrate multiple payment channels; real-time monitoring of gateway availability

Third-party payment processor outage, network disruption

1.5

Product Terms Setup and Account Parameter Maintenance

Misconfiguration of account parameters during system update

Incorrect interest/fees applied; financial loss; compliance breach

Implement change management controls; automated configuration validation

System configuration errors, DevOps pipeline vulnerabilities

1.6

Deposit Transactions Processing

Core banking system downtime during the peak transaction period

Inability to process deposits; branch and ATM disruption

Deploy a high-availability architecture; transaction queuing mechanisms

Core system outage, database failure, infrastructure overload

1.7

Withdrawal and Funds Access Processing

ATM network outage due to telecom failure

Customers unable to access funds; reputational impact

Diversify telecom providers; enable branch fallback services

Network connectivity failure, ATM switch disruption

1.8

Account Servicing and Customer Maintenance

CRM system outage due to ransomware attack

Inability to update customer records; service delays

Implement endpoint protection, regular data backups, and recovery testing

Ransomware attack, data encryption risk

1.9

Interest, Fees, and Charges Processing

Batch processing failure due to corrupted data

Incorrect interest postings; financial discrepancies

Strengthen data validation controls; reconciliation checkpoints

Data corruption, batch job failure

1.10

Statement, Passbook, and Balance Reporting

Failure of the reporting engine due to a system integration error

Customers unable to access statements; regulatory reporting delays

Implement parallel reporting systems; automated report validation

Data warehouse failure, reporting system outage

1.11

Digital Account Access and Channel Integration

Mobile banking app outage caused by DDoS attack

Customers unable to access accounts; transaction failures

Deploy DDoS protection; scale infrastructure dynamically

Cyberattack (DDoS), API gateway overload

1.12

Reconciliation and Exception Management

Failure in the reconciliation engine due to data mismatch across systems

Unresolved discrepancies; financial reporting risk

Automate reconciliation processes; implement exception alerts

Data inconsistency, system interface failure

1.13

Fraud Detection and Transaction Monitoring

AI fraud detection system failure or evasion by sophisticated attack

Increased fraud losses; delayed detection

Enhance fraud analytics models; implement layered detection controls

Cyber fraud attack, AI model manipulation

1.14

Regulatory Reporting and Compliance Monitoring

Failure to submit regulatory reports due to a system outage

Regulatory penalties; compliance breach

Maintain backup reporting systems; manual reporting procedures

Regulatory system interface failure, data extraction issues

1.15

Incident Response, Business Continuity, and Recovery

Simultaneous cyberattack and data centre outage (compound scenario)

Prolonged service disruption; inability to recover within tolerance

Conduct scenario testing; establish alternate recovery sites; crisis management activation

Cyber-physical convergence risk, data centre failure, DR site activation

 

 

The identification of Severe but Plausible Scenarios across CBS-1 Retail Deposit and Account Services enables Security Bank Corporation to move beyond traditional risk management towards a forward-looking operational resilience posture.

By systematically analysing high-impact disruption scenarios, the bank can validate whether its existing controls, recovery capabilities, and response strategies are sufficient to remain within defined impact tolerances.

Importantly, the integration of Cyber and ICT risks across all Sub-CBS reflects the growing interdependence between digital infrastructure and the delivery of financial services.

In line with BSP Circular 1203, this structured approach ensures that Security Bank not only complies with regulatory expectations but also strengthens its ability to anticipate, withstand, and recover from disruptions—thereby safeguarding customer trust and maintaining financial system stability.

eBook 3: Starting Your OR Implementation
CBS-1 Retail Deposit & Account Services
CBS-1 DP CBS-1 MD CBS-1 MPR CBS-1 ITo CBS-1 SuPS CBS-1 ST

 

  Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

 

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