It introduces a structured, forward-looking approach to identifying disruption scenarios that are severe enough to test resilience limits yet plausible enough to be credible and actionable.
By systematically examining scenarios across retail banking, payments, digital channels, lending, treasury, wealth management, regulatory reporting, and third-party services, the chapter helps readers understand how diverse threats—such as cyber-attacks, system failures, third-party outages, market shocks, and regulatory disruptions—can impact end-to-end service delivery.
The purpose of this chapter is to guide readers in developing a consistent, defensible scenario-identification methodology aligned with operational resilience principles.
Before engaging in impact tolerance setting and scenario testing, readers are expected to learn how to define scenarios that meaningfully challenge Metrobank’s people, processes, technology, facilities, and third-party dependencies.
By the end of this chapter, readers should be able to articulate scenarios that reflect Metrobank’s real operational risks and customer harm considerations, rather than generic or purely theoretical events.
Table P5: Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1 to CBS-12
|
Sub-CBS Code |
Name of Sub-CBS |
Severe but Plausible Scenario |
Impact/ Effect |
Proactive Risk Management Action |
|
1.1 |
Cash Deposit at Branches |
Natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes or floods) render branches inaccessible; Cyber-attacks disrupt branch systems. |
Branch services crippled; delayed deposits |
Resilient infrastructure, continuity planning & disaster recovery drills |
|
1.2 |
Deposit via ATMs |
ATM network failure due to a cyber-attack or malfunction |
ATM deposits unavailable |
Cybersecurity audits, real-time monitoring, secure updates |
|
1.3 |
Online/ Internet Banking Deposits |
DDoS attacks or system overloads cause unavailability |
Online deposit outages |
Multi-layered authentication & DDoS protection |
|
1.4 |
Cash Withdrawal at Branches |
Power failure affecting withdrawal systems |
The customer's inability to withdraw cash |
Backup power, failover systems |
|
1.5 |
ATM Withdrawals |
ATM skimming or cash-out attacks |
Financial loss & service disruption |
Encryption, transaction monitoring |
|
1.6 |
Online/Internet Banking Withdrawals |
Account takeover fraud; DDoS |
Service disruption & data loss |
Two-factor authentication, fraud monitoring |
|
1.7 |
Failed Deposits or Withdrawals |
System errors/technical faults |
Transaction failures or delays |
Redundancy & incident response |
|
1.8 |
Fraud Detection and Prevention |
APT attacks on fraud systems |
Fraud systems compromised |
AI detection & continuous monitoring |
|
2.1 |
Transaction Initiation |
DDoS halting initiation |
Delayed or failed payments |
DDoS tools, network monitoring |
|
2.2 |
Transaction Validation |
Corrupted database failure |
Operational delays & errors |
Backup systems & validation audits |
|
2.3 |
Transaction Authorisation |
Malicious insider access |
Fraudulent transactions |
User access controls, MFA |
|
2.4 |
Transaction Settlement |
After-hours outage causing settlement delays |
Liquidity issues & reputation risk |
24/7 monitoring & fallback systems |
|
2.5 |
Reconciliation |
Reconciliation system failure |
Inaccurate balances |
Automated reconciliation & frequent testing |
|
2.6 |
Dispute Resolution |
Legal disputes/fraud claims |
Service halt & dissatisfaction |
Fast-track dispute protocols |
|
2.7 |
Compliance & Reporting |
Cybersecurity breach reporting |
Regulatory penalties |
Data encryption & compliance checks |
|
2.8 |
System Maintenance & Monitoring |
Bugs during updates |
Downtime or error propagation |
Rigorous testing & structured maintenance |
|
3.1 |
ATM Cash Withdrawal Services |
ATM network failure from a cyberattack |
Disruption of cash access |
Cybersecurity audits & DDoS protection |
|
3.2 |
Branch Cash Withdrawal Services |
Cash vault breach + system outage |
Loss of funds & reputation damage |
CCTV, access controls |
|
3.3 |
Cash Deposit Services |
Misrouting due to fraud or a glitch |
Mishandled funds |
Biometric authentication & redundancy |
|
3.4 |
Cash Handling and Replenishment |
Theft during transport + IT disruption |
Operational & financial loss |
GPS tracking & real-time monitoring |
|
3.5 |
ATM Maintenance & Troubleshooting |
Simultaneous hardware failures |
Extended downtime |
Preventive maintenance & remote diagnostics |
|
4.1 |
Corporate Account Setup & Onboarding |
KYC onboarding outage from vendor compromise |
Onboarding delays |
Redundant tools & vendor assurance |
|
4.2 |
Receivables Management |
Ransomware stops receivables |
Processing disruption |
Endpoint protection & backups |
|
4.3 |
Payables & Disbursement |
DDoS on payment infrastructure |
Disbursement failures |
DDoS mitigation & anomaly monitoring |
|
4.4 |
Electronic Banking & Treasury Support |
Zero-day exploit shuts platform |
Access loss |
Intrusion detection & patching |
|
4.5 |
Cash Concentration & Liquidity |
Data corruption in the liquidity engine |
Poor liquidity management |
Immutable backups & anomaly detection |
|
4.6 |
Cheque Clearing & Settlement |
Clearinghouse cyber incident |
Market trust issues |
Manual contingency & operator coordination |
|
4.7 |
Corporate Deposits & Cash Vault |
Insider collusion disrupts logistics |
Vault operation delays |
Route encryption & secure audits |
|
4.8 |
Collections Reconciliation |
Data integrity breach |
Inaccurate reporting |
Continuous validation & audit trails |
|
4.9 |
Complaint, Exception & Dispute |
Fraud via social engineering |
Customer dissatisfaction |
Fraud analytics & staff training |
|
4.10 |
Regulatory & Compliance Monitoring |
Malware corrupts reporting |
Fines & reputational damage |
Alternate reporting pipelines |
|
5.1 |
Retail Loan Origination & Assessment |
Cyberattack on credit score providers |
Delays & inaccuracies |
Alternate channels & penetration testing |
|
5.2 |
Corporate & Commercial Underwriting |
Ransomware in underwriting |
Data inaccessibility & delays |
Backup strategies & staff training |
|
5.3 |
SME Financing & Credit Processing |
API failure with partners |
Incorrect disbursals |
API monitoring & redundancy |
|
5.4 |
Credit Approval & Sanctioning |
Data corruption in systems |
Incorrect terms |
Validation systems & compliance checks |
|
5.5 |
Loan Documentation & Contract Execution |
Malware alters contracts |
Legal disputes |
Fail-safes & system checks |
|
5.6 |
Collateral Management |
Unauthorised access to collateral systems |
Fraudulent registrations |
MFA & monitoring |
|
5.7 |
Loan Disbursement & Setup |
System glitch in disbursement |
Delays & incorrect transfers |
Transaction monitoring |
|
5.8 |
Loan Servicing & Support |
System crash or attack |
Customer dissatisfaction |
CRM upgrades & training |
|
5.9 |
Credit Monitoring & Risk Review |
Breach delaying monitoring |
Regulatory penalties |
Patch management & security reviews |
|
5.10 |
Collections & Delinquency |
Data tampering in record-keeping |
Compliance breaches |
Encryption & real-time monitoring |
|
5.11 |
Regulatory Reporting & Compliance |
Reporting breach |
Legal fines |
Secure reporting systems |
|
5.12 |
Loan Portfolio Analytics |
Attack on analytics systems |
Risk assessment errors |
Backups & continuity planning |
|
6.1 |
Liquidity & Cash Management |
Systemic liquidity crisis + mass withdrawals |
Settlement delays & liquidity squeeze |
Contingency funding & monitoring |
|
6.2 |
Money Market Operations |
Major counterparty failure |
Funding delays |
Exposure monitoring & diversification |
|
6.3 |
FX Trading & Settlement |
Global clearing system disruption |
Market & settlement failures |
Multi-venue settlement & secure interfaces |
|
6.4 |
Fixed Income & Securities Trading |
Market freeze from shock |
Failed trades & liquidity freeze |
Liquidity buffers & monitoring |
|
6.5 |
Derivatives Trading & Risk Mgmt |
Volatility spikes margin stress |
Margin pressures |
Stress testing & risk limits |
|
6.6 |
Treasury Operations & Back-Office |
Operational outage backlog |
Settlement backlogs |
Dual-site ops & cross-training |
|
6.7 |
Collateral & Margin Management |
Exchange outage affecting margin |
Shortfalls & breaches |
Alternative channels & protocols |
|
6.8 |
Treasury Risk Monitoring & Compliance |
Disrupted surveillance systems |
Compliance fines |
Manual monitoring triggers |
|
6.9 |
Investment Portfolio Management |
Flash crash across markets |
Value erosion |
Dynamic allocation & stress tests |
|
6.10 |
Market Data & Pricing Support |
Pricing vendor outage |
Mispricing risk |
Vendor SLAs & data scanning |
|
7.1 |
Online Banking Platform Management |
Extended unavailability due to cloud service outage |
Significant downtime, customer dissatisfaction, and reputational damage |
Implement multi-cloud redundancy & availability testing |
|
7.2 |
Mobile Banking Application Services |
Critical vulnerability exploited in a mobile app |
Customer access disruption, transaction delays |
Secure code reviews, penetration testing, app hardening |
|
7.3 |
Digital Account Access and Authentication |
Credential stuffing/ phishing compromises users |
Customer lockouts, unauthorised access |
|
|
7.4 |
Online Funds Transfer and Payment Processing |
Payment gateway compromise |
Financial loss, regulatory breach |
Transaction anomaly detection & out-of-band verification |
|
7.5 |
Digital Customer Onboarding & e-KYC |
Third-party API compromise |
Regulatory non-compliance, identity theft |
Diversify verification vendors & API isolation |
|
7.6 |
Digital Customer Support & Service Channels |
DDoS attack on support channels |
Inability to serve customers, reputational harm |
|
|
7.7 |
CNP & e-Commerce Transaction Processing |
Surge in fraudulent transactions |
Financial loss & fraud escalation |
AI-driven fraud detection & merchant risk scoring |
|
7.8 |
ATM & Electronic Channel Management |
Malware across the ATM network |
Service disruption, public trust erosion |
|
|
7.9 |
Cybersecurity & Fraud Monitoring for Digital Channels |
Simultaneous ransomware + phishing attack |
Undetected breaches, financial loss |
Cyber incident playbooks & automated containment |
|
7.10 |
Digital Banking Data Management & Reporting |
Insider or ransomware data breach |
Data corruption/loss, loss of regulatory confidence |
Data validation, encryption & immutable backups |
|
8.1 |
Client Onboarding & Profiling |
Data breach during onboarding |
Client trust loss & legal consequences |
MFA, encrypted storage & continuous monitoring |
|
8.2 |
Investment Advisory & Portfolio Mgmt |
Flash crash/market disruption |
Client losses & reputational damage |
Stress tests & emergency response strategies |
|
8.3 |
Trust Account Establishment & Admin |
System failure |
Non-compliance, regulatory fines |
Reliability upgrades, backups & drills |
|
8.4 |
Fund & Asset Mgmt Operations |
Regulatory audit failure |
Investor confidence loss & penalties |
Compliance audits & real-time reporting automation |
|
8.5 |
Wealth & Estate Planning Services |
Legal dispute in estate planning |
Client dissatisfaction & legal costs |
Improved legal review & client communication |
|
8.6 |
Regulatory & Fiduciary Compliance Mgmt |
Missing regulatory deadlines |
Fines & reputational loss |
Automated compliance tracking & staff training |
|
8.7 |
Client Reporting & Relationship Mgmt |
Communication system breakdown |
Client churn & reputational damage |
Upgraded comms infrastructure & protocols |
|
8.8 |
Custodial & Safekeeping Services |
Physical/cyber breach of custodial assets |
Client asset loss & regulatory action |
Security audits & real-time monitoring |
|
9.1 |
Credit Card Application & Onboarding |
Database corruption/malware outage |
Application processing failure & reputational loss |
Secure backups & redundancy in platforms |
|
9.2 |
Card Issuance & Fulfilment |
Ransomware at a third-party vendor |
Delayed issuance & SLA breach |
Alternate vendors & continuity agreements |
|
9.3 |
Transaction Authorisation & Processing |
DDoS or switch failure |
Transaction declines & financial loss |
DDoS mitigation & high-availability systems |
|
9.4 |
Merchant Acquiring & Onboarding |
Portal outage due to a bad patch |
Merchant onboarding delays |
Staging patch tests & change control |
|
9.5 |
Merchant Transaction & Settlement Services |
Payment gateway compromise |
Settlement delays & data breach liabilities |
Encryption & enhanced reconciliation controls |
|
9.6 |
Cardholder Servicing & Collections |
CRM/collections downtime |
Disrupted service & increased delinquency |
Mirrored systems & alternate channels |
|
9.7 |
Fraud Detection & Security Monitoring |
Fraud system failure |
Undetected fraud & financial/exposure risk |
Failover engines & model validation |
|
9.8 |
Compliance & Regulatory Management |
API vulnerability breach |
Penalties & compliance breaches |
Security audits & encryption |
|
10.1 |
International Remittance Processing |
DDoS attack on remittance platform |
Processing disruption & financial loss |
Multi-layer DDoS protection & monitoring |
|
10.2 |
Remittance Partner & Correspondent Bank Mgmt |
Key partner insolvency |
Transaction processing inability |
Contingency agreements & multi-partner support |
|
10.3 |
FX Conversion & Rate Mgmt |
Extreme market volatility |
Loss from currency positions & compliance issues |
Hedging strategies & real-time monitoring |
|
10.4 |
OFW Remittance Facilitation |
Political instability |
Service interruptions & fines |
|
|
10.5 |
Cross-Border Compliance & Sanctions Screening |
Data breach of compliance data |
Trust loss & delays |
Encrypt data & cybersecurity audits |
|
10.6 |
Customer Enrolment & KYC for Remittances |
Regulatory changes to KYC |
Onboarding delays & lost business |
Adaptive KYC platforms & training |
|
10.7 |
Dispute Resolution & Trace Requests |
Surge in disputes from security vulnerability |
Backlog & reputation damage |
|
|
10.8 |
FX Transaction Settlement & Reporting |
System overload or bug |
Settlement delays & reporting issues |
|
|
11.1 |
Regulatory Reporting Framework |
Cyberattack on reporting systems |
Loss of capability & penalties |
Patching, cybersecurity & training |
|
11.2 |
Compliance Monitoring & Auditing |
System failure |
Compliance monitoring failure & fines |
Redundant systems & backups |
|
11.3 |
Submission of Regulatory Reports |
Misreporting due to error/malfunction |
Legal & operational delays |
Automated reports with validation checks |
|
11.4 |
Risk Assessment & Mitigation in Reporting |
Data corruption |
Inaccurate risk reporting & compliance issues |
Integrity checks & encryption |
|
11.5 |
Reporting Systems & Technology |
DDoS/software failure |
Interruptions & missed deadlines |
Disaster recovery & failover testing |
|
12.1 |
Vendor Risk Management |
Major vendor ransomware |
Service disruption & delayed transactions |
Vendor due diligence & cyber assessment |
|
12.2 |
Third-Party Contract Management |
Contract dispute → service suspension |
SLA breach & non-compliance |
Contract reviews & continuity clauses |
|
12.3 |
Outsourced Service Monitoring |
Multi-site outage |
Transaction delays & downtime |
|
|
12.4 |
Service Continuity Planning |
Data centre outage |
Failure to deliver services within tolerance |
BCP activation & backup site switching |
|
12.5 |
Compliance & Regulatory Assurance |
Regulatory audit finds non-compliance |
Fines & reputational damage |
Periodic & cybersecurity audits |
|
12.6 |
Incident Management & Response |
Coordinated third-party cyber-attack |
Data breaches & unavailability |
Incident plans & tabletop exercises |
In conclusion, identifying severe yet plausible scenarios for CBS-1 through CBS-12 provides Metrobank with a robust lens to reveal and understand operational vulnerabilities.
These scenarios bridge risk awareness and resilience validation, ensuring subsequent scenario testing is grounded in realistic, high-impact disruptions that matter most to customers, regulators, and the organisation.
This chapter prepares Metrobank to move confidently into the next phase of operational resilience by establishing a clear, structured inventory of challenge scenarios.
When used effectively, these scenarios enable management to assess preparedness, strengthen controls, enhance recovery strategies, and demonstrate a proactive commitment to maintaining critical services within acceptable impact tolerances—even under extreme but credible conditions.
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Building Resilient Banking Operations: The Metrobank Operational Resilience Implementation Guide |
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| eBook 3: Starting Your OR Implementation |
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| Consolidated Report | |||||
| P1 DP | P2 MD | P3 MPR | P4 ITo | P5 SuPS | P6 ST |
| Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for Critical Business Services for Metrobank [CBS 1 - CBS 12] | |||||
| CBS 1 | CBS 2 | CBS 3 | CBS 4 | CBS 5 | CBS 6 |
| CBS 7 | CBS 8 | CBS 9 | CBS 10 | CBS 11 | CBS 12 |
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