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[OR] [CIMB] [E3] [CBS] [2] [SuPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Written by Dr Goh Moh Heng | Mar 13, 2026 8:19:51 AM

 CBS-2 Payment & Fund Transfer Services

Introduction

Identifying severe but plausible scenarios (SBPS) is a critical step in strengthening the operational resilience of CIMB Bank’s CBS-2 Payment & Fund Transfer Services.

These scenarios are carefully constructed hypothetical events that, while extreme, are realistic enough to challenge the bank’s operational capacity and test its preparedness for significant disruptions.

By considering factors such as technological failures, cyber threats, and physical   security incidents, natural disasters, and third-party disruptions, CIMB Bank can anticipate how these events might affect cash operations, card issuance, branch services, and customer interactions.

SBPS help the bank evaluate the potential consequences of such disruptions on service continuity, financial stability, and customer trust, while also informing strategic planning, resource allocation, and recovery priorities.

Aligning this process with regulatory guidance, including the 2025 BNM Discussion Paper on Operational Resilience, ensures that the bank’s resilience strategies are both robust and compliant.

Furthermore, integrating cyber and ICT risks into SBPS development ensures that digital channels, automated systems, and data security vulnerabilities are considered alongside traditional operational risks, providing a holistic view of potential threats.

Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-2

Sub-CBS Code

Sub-CBS

Severe but Plausible Scenario

Impact / Effect

Proactive Risk Management Action

Link to Integration of Cyber and ICT Risks

3.1

ATM & Self-Service Terminal Operations

Regional ATM network outage due to ransomware attack

Disruption of cash withdrawals and deposits, customer dissatisfaction

Regular patching, endpoint security, incident response drills, and alternative channel communication

Ensure ATMs have isolated network segments and monitoring for cyber intrusions

3.2

Branch Cash Teller Operations

Simultaneous teller system failure in multiple branches

Inability to process cash transactions, increased queue times

Redundant teller systems, offline transaction procedures, and staff cross-training

Integration of real-time transaction monitoring to detect anomalies early

3.3

Branch Customer Service & Sales Support

Targeted phishing campaign compromising customer accounts

Fraudulent fund transfers, reputational risk

Customer awareness campaigns, multi-factor authentication, and fraud detection analytics

Link to ICT risk via identity verification systems and secure CRM access

3.4

Cash Inventory & Security Management

Major theft or armed robbery at the central cash storage

Cash loss, operational delays, and insurance claims

Secure vaults, CCTV monitoring, armed security, and transport procedures

Cyber/ICT integration in tracking cash inventory and alarm systems

3.5

Card Issuance & PickUp

The card production system was compromised by malware

Delay in issuing cards, potential fraud

Air-gapped card production, malware detection, and verification controls

Cyber risk: secure card personalisation systems and encrypted communication channels

3.6

Queue & Appointment Management

The branch queue system crashed during the peak period

Prolonged waiting times, customer dissatisfaction

Cloud backup, manual queue handling, and appointment rescheduling

ICT integration: ensure mobile and online booking systems remain available

3.7

Branch Risk & Compliance Controls

Failure of compliance monitoring systems

Regulatory breaches, fines, operational penalties

Regular audits, automated compliance alerts, and dual control processes

Integration of compliance software with IT security monitoring

3.8

Business Continuity & Incident Response at Branches

Simultaneous branch closure due to flood

Interruption in fund transfer and payments

BC plans, disaster recovery drills, and alternate branch arrangements

ICT link: remote access to banking systems, mobile banking continuity

3.9

Cash Logistics & Vendor Coordination

Cash transport vendor strikes or cyber disruption

Shortage of cash in ATMs and branches

Alternative vendors, pre-positioned cash reserves, and route contingency planning

Cyber integration: secure logistics tracking systems and encrypted communications

3.10

Branch Infrastructure & Facilities Management

Power outage or HVAC failure at multiple branches

Branch closures, disruption to services

Backup generators, preventive maintenance, and facilities monitoring

ICT integration: IoT sensors for facilities, integration with the branch operations system

Identifying severe but plausible scenarios enables CIMB Bank to proactively address vulnerabilities and strengthen its ability to maintain CBS-2 Payment & Fund Transfer Services under extreme conditions.

These scenarios serve as a foundation for resilience planning, informing business continuity strategies, risk mitigation measures, and scenario testing exercises.

By anticipating the impacts of potential disruptions—ranging from cyber-attacks and system outages to operational and logistical failures—the bank can implement targeted controls, enhance staff preparedness, and ensure continuity of critical services. Integration of cyber and ICT risk considerations further reinforces the resilience of both digital and physical infrastructure, safeguarding customer assets and data while supporting regulatory compliance.

Regularly updating and reviewing these scenarios ensures that the bank remains adaptive to emerging threats and industry developments, ultimately preserving operational stability, protecting stakeholder confidence, and reinforcing CIMB Bank’s commitment to resilient and reliable payment and fund transfer services.

 

Operational Resilience in Practice: The CIMB Bank Approach

eBook 3: Starting Your OR Implementation
CBS-2 Payment & Fund Transfer Services
CBS-2 DP CBS-2 MD CBS-2 MPR CBS-2 ITo CBS-2 SuPS CBS-2 ST
               

 

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