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[OR] [CB] [E3] [CBS] [1] [SbPS] Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios

Written by Moh Heng Goh | Jun 2, 2026 7:41:21 AM

CBS-1 Retail Deposit & Account Services 


Operational resilience requires financial institutions to anticipate disruptions that could threaten the continuity of their critical business services (CBS). 

For CBS-1 Retail Deposit & Account Services at Clarien Bank, identifying severe but plausible scenarios enables the bank to evaluate how extreme yet realistic events could disrupt account services, including deposits, withdrawals, transfers, and customer account management. 

These scenarios represent conditions that could arise from technology failures, cyber incidents, third-party outages, operational errors, or regulatory disruptions.

By mapping such scenarios to each Sub-CBS, Clarien Bank can assess potential operational impacts, understand dependencies across people, processes, technology, and third parties, and strengthen preventive controls. 

Integrating Cyber and ICT risk considerations ensures that technology-driven disruptions—such as cyberattacks, infrastructure outages, or digital channel failures—are incorporated into resilience planning. 

The following table outlines recommended severe yet plausible scenarios, along with potential impacts and proactive risk management measures.

 

Table P5: Identify Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1

 

Sub-CBS Code

Sub-CBS

Severe but Plausible Scenario

Impact / Effect

Proactive Risk Management Action

Link to Integration of Cyber and ICT Risks

1.1

Customer Onboarding & Account Opening

Digital onboarding platform outage due to cloud service disruption

Customers unable to open new accounts; onboarding backlog

Implement alternate manual onboarding procedures and DR failover for onboarding systems

ICT infrastructure resilience, cloud provider outage management

1.2

Customer Identity Verification & Compliance Screening

Failure of the KYC/AML screening system due to vendor system outage

Delayed customer verification; regulatory compliance risk

Maintain secondary compliance screening provider and manual verification process

Third-party cyber resilience and vendor system security

1.3

Account Setup & Product Configuration

Core banking configuration error during system upgrade

Incorrect account setup or delayed activation

Pre-deployment testing, configuration control and rollback procedures

Change management and application security controls

1.4

Deposit Processing (Cash, Cheque, Electronic)

Cheque clearing network disruption or payment network outage

Deposits not processed or delayed; liquidity concerns for customers

Alternative clearing arrangements and transaction queuing mechanisms

Payment network cybersecurity and ICT infrastructure monitoring

1.5

Withdrawal & Funds Access

ATM network outage due to a cyberattack or telecom failure

Customers unable to withdraw funds; reputational impact

ATM network redundancy and cash withdrawal fallback through branch channels

ATM cybersecurity monitoring and telecom resilience

1.6

Internal & External Account Transfers

Payment gateway or SWIFT connectivity disruption

Delayed or failed transfers; customer complaints

Implement alternate payment routing and transaction retry logic

Secure network connectivity and payment messaging protection

1.7

Digital Banking Access Management

Authentication platform compromised by credential-stuffing attack

Customers locked out or fraudulent access attempts

Deploy multi-factor authentication, anomaly detection, and account lockout controls

Identity and access management cybersecurity integration

1.8

Payment & Bill Payment Processing

Bill payment aggregator outage due to a cyber incident

Customers are unable to pay bills; payment deadlines are missed

Establish multiple payment aggregators and backup payment channels

Third-party ICT resilience and API security monitoring

1.9

Debit Card Issuance & Transaction Processing

Card processor service disruption affecting POS transactions

Customers are unable to complete card payments

Maintain alternate card processing capability and transaction authorisation fallback

Card network cybersecurity and transaction monitoring

1.10

Account Monitoring & Fraud Detection

Fraud monitoring system failure during a high-volume transaction period

Increased fraud exposure and delayed detection

Deploy redundant fraud monitoring engines and real-time alert escalation

Security analytics and cyber threat monitoring integration

1.11

Transaction Posting & Account Ledger Update

Core banking database corruption after system crash

Incorrect balances or delayed transaction posting

Automated data integrity checks and database recovery procedures

Data integrity protection and database security controls

1.12

Customer Notification & Statement Generation

The messaging platform outage is preventing alerts and statements

Customers are unaware of transactions; reduced transparency

Implement secondary messaging platform and batch notification fallback

ICT communication platform resilience

1.13

Exception Handling & Dispute Management

The case management system is unavailable due to a ransomware attack

Delayed investigation of disputes; customer dissatisfaction

Maintain offline case tracking procedures and secure backup systems

Cyber incident response and ransomware recovery

1.14

Reconciliation & Financial Control

Settlement reconciliation system failure during end-of-day processing

Financial reporting discrepancies; operational delays

Implement automated reconciliation validation and manual reconciliation capability

Financial system security and operational monitoring

1.15

Regulatory Reporting & Compliance Monitoring

Regulatory reporting platform compromised, or data unavailable

Missed regulatory submission deadlines

Maintain secure regulatory reporting backup systems and contingency reporting procedures

Data protection and regulatory system cybersecurity

1.16

Business Continuity & Account Services Recovery

Data centre outage due to a natural disaster or a major cyber incident

Retail deposit services unavailable for an extended period

Activate DR site, failover core banking, and execute continuity recovery plans

DR infrastructure resilience and cyber-incident recovery integration

 

 

Identifying Severe but Plausible Scenarios for CBS-1: Core Deposit & Account Services enables Clarien Bank to rigorously test its resilience posture against high-impact, realistic disruptions.

These scenarios ensure that the bank moves beyond theoretical risk assessment to practical stress-testing of operational capabilities.

By integrating cybersecurity, ICT resilience, third-party risk management, and governance controls into scenario planning, CB strengthens its ability to anticipate, withstand, and recover from operational shocks.

This structured identification of SbP scenarios supports regulatory compliance, safeguards customer interests, and reinforces confidence in the bank’s core deposit and payment services—ensuring sustainable operational resilience in an increasingly digital and interconnected banking environment.

 

eBook 3: Starting Your OR Implementation
CBS-1 CBS-1 Retail Deposit & Account Services
CBS-1 DP CBS-1 MD CBS-1 MPR CBS-1 ITo CBS-1 SbPS CBS-1 ST

Gain Competency: For organisations looking to accelerate their journey, BCM Institute’s training and certification programs, including the OR-5000 Operational Resilience Expert Implementer course, provide in-depth insights and practical toolkits for effectively embedding this model.

 

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