[CM] [RYT] [E3] [CRA] [T3] Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Introduction

The chapter titled “Part 3: CRA– Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment" for Ryt Bank (Categorised by Crisis Types)” presents a structured analysis of potential crisis scenarios that could affect the operational resilience of Ryt Bank.

This assessment builds upon the crisis scenarios identified in Part 1. It classifies them based on internationally recognised crisis categories, ranging from natural disasters and technological failures to organisational misconduct and acts of malevolence.

Each identified crisis scenario is evaluated based on its potential impact across eight critical areas: finance, operations, legal and regulatory compliance, reputation, social responsibility, human resources, and assets, including IT systems and information.

The likelihood of occurrence and the severity of impact are quantified to derive a Risk Rating and Risk Level for each scenario.

This assessment enables Ryt Bank to prioritise risks based on severity and likelihood, forming the foundation for effective risk mitigation strategies and business continuity planning.

Table Below:  Notes for BCM Institute's Course Participants: This is the template for completing the "Part 3: RAR – Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment."

Part 3: RAR – Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment for Ryt Bank (Categorised by Crisis Types)

Risk Rating Guide

Risk Level bands (example guidance notes based on BCM Institute)

• Very Low: 1–5
• Low: 6–9
• Medium: 10–14
• High: 15–19
• Very High: ≥20

How to use this template

1. Impact Area Ratings: Score each of the seven categories from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High).
2. Highest Impact: Select the highest score among those seven.
3. Likelihood: Assign a 1–5 rating based on your organisation's experience/frequency
4. Assign Risk Level based on the rating’s band.
5. Expected Disruption: Estimate downtime using organisational intelligence and context.

Conclusion

The Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment is a key component of Ryt Bank’s broader crisis readiness and operational resilience framework.

By categorising threats and systematically evaluating their consequences across multiple impact dimensions, Ryt Bank gains a clear and actionable understanding of its risk exposure.

High-risk scenarios—particularly those involving technological failure, cyber threats, and reputational damage—require immediate focus in terms of mitigation planning, resource allocation, and crisis response testing.

As a fully digital bank operating in a rapidly evolving financial landscape, Ryt Bank must remain proactive in identifying emerging threats and continuously updating its risk posture.

The insights from this assessment will guide the development of targeted control measures, improve response capabilities, and enhance overall preparedness to ensure continued trust, regulatory compliance, and uninterrupted banking services for its customers.