---
title: "[BCM] [JHA] [E1] [C5] Determining BCM Assumptions for Jamiyah Home for the Aged"
description: Seven planning assumptions for JHA covering staff absence, premises, utilities, suppliers, medical care, relocation and residents, and how to test each one.
---
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###### Sustaining Community Services: Implementing BCM at Jamiyah Home for the Aged
# \[BCM\] \[JHA\] \[E1\] \[C5\] Determining BCM Assumptions for Jamiyah Home for the Aged
[](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/1ce18ee1-97ef-4ed4-b16b-5d6ab24cec19)
Every continuity plan rests on assumptions. A plan that says "move residents to a receiving home" assumes a home is willing and able to take them. A plan that says "staff will cover extra shifts" assumes enough staff are well and able to reach Tampines. When assumptions are wrong, plans fail when they are needed most.
Chapter 4 sets measurable objectives for Jamiyah Home for the Aged (JHA). This chapter shows how JHA should identify, record, approve and test the planning assumptions behind its continuity work. Assumptions support clause 6.1 of ISO 22301, which deals with risks and opportunities to the business continuity management system (BCMS), and they frame the business impact analysis (BIA) and risk assessment under clause 8.2.
[](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c338a09a-7f6f-47e5-a008-c9d4d3aa9653)
[Moh Heng Goh](https://blog.bcm-institute.org/bcm-v2/author/moh-heng-goh) Nov 3, 2026
## [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/1ce18ee1-97ef-4ed4-b16b-5d6ab24cec19)
## [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/c338a09a-7f6f-47e5-a008-c9d4d3aa9653)
## Introduction
[![\[BCM\] \[JHA\] \[E1\] \[C5\] Determining BC Assumptions](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3893111/26adfdd7-05c6-4cd5-81a9-5cc2aaddecee.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/26adfdd7-05c6-4cd5-81a9-5cc2aaddecee)Every continuity plan rests on assumptions. A plan that says "move residents to a receiving home" assumes there is a home willing and able to take them. A plan that says "staff will cover extra shifts" assumes enough staff are well and able to reach Tampines. When assumptions are wrong, plans fail at the moment they are needed most.
Chapter 4 set measurable objectives for Jamiyah Home for the Aged (JHA). This chapter shows how JHA should identify, record, approve and test the planning assumptions behind its continuity work. Assumptions support clause 6.1 of ISO 22301, which deals with risks and opportunities to the business continuity management system (BCMS), and they frame the business impact analysis (BIA) and risk assessment under clause 8.2.
## Why Assumptions Need to Be Written Down
Most assumptions are never stated. They live in the heads of experienced staff and surface only when something goes wrong. Writing them down has three benefits: it lets leaders challenge them, it lets planners design around them, and it shows auditors and regulators the basis on which plans were built.
For JHA, unstated assumptions are especially risky because residents depend on the home for almost everything. For example, a meal plan that assumes the kitchen gas supply will return within hours may leave residents without hot food if the outage lasts two days.
## The Regulatory Frame for JHA's Assumptions
Singapore has no national business continuity management (BCM) policy that prescribes planning assumptions for welfare homes. JHA's assumptions should still align with its regulatory position. As a welfare home gazetted by the Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF), JHA cannot move or discharge residents without MSF's involvement, because MSF is the admitting authority. Any assumption about relocation must therefore assume MSF's participation, not just JHA's own decision.
Public health guidance also matters. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore's long-term care facilities suspended in-person visits and operated separate zones with fixed staff. JHA should assume that similar measures could be required again in a future outbreak.
## Proposed Planning Assumptions for JHA
Seven assumptions, numbered A1 to A7, are proposed below. All values are illustrative and should be tested in the BIA and approved by the BCM steering committee.
- **A1 Staff absence:** up to 30% of staff may be unavailable for up to four weeks during an epidemic, a transport disruption or a severe weather event.
- **A2 Premises:** the Tampines premises may be partly or wholly unusable for up to two weeks after a fire, flood or major utility failure.
- **A3 Utilities:** power or water may be lost for up to 24 hours; backup arrangements must cover Tier 1 services for that period.
- **A4 Suppliers:** a key supplier, such as a meal or laundry provider, may be unable to deliver for up to 72 hours.
- **A5 External medical services:** dialysis providers and hospitals will remain available, but transport to them may be disrupted for up to 24 hours.
- **A6 Relocation support:** MSF and Jamiyah Singapore will support relocation, but a receiving facility may need up to 24 hours to prepare.
- **A7 Residents:** most residents will need staff assistance to evacuate, relocate or adapt routines, and some will need continuous supervision.
Assumptions A1 and A7 together illustrate why staffing is often JHA's binding constraint. If 30% of staff are absent and most residents need help to move, an evacuation that is routine on a normal day becomes difficult. Planners can then decide whether to pre-arrange agency staff, volunteers or support from other Jamiyah homes.
## Assumptions About Faith, Culture and Daily Routine
Some of JHA's most important assumptions concern daily life rather than infrastructure. Residents' routines, diets and religious practice matter to their well-being, and disruption can affect them more than outsiders expect. JHA should therefore state assumptions about these needs explicitly.
For example, JHA might assume that halal meals must be available to all residents throughout any disruption, that meal timings will shift during Ramadan, and that a quiet space for prayer must be provided at any temporary location (illustrative). These assumptions shape supplier choices and relocation options in eBook 2. They also guard against a plan that keeps residents safe but distressed.
#### Assumptions JHA Should Avoid
Some assumptions are tempting but unsafe. Planners should avoid assuming that a disruption will happen during office hours, when the Superintendent and department heads are on site. JHA runs 24 hours a day, and incidents often begin at night or at weekends.
Planners should also avoid assuming that only one thing goes wrong at a time. Heavy rain can cause transport disruption and power failure at the same time; an epidemic can reduce staff and suppliers at once. Finally, JHA should not assume that external help will arrive quickly. In a widespread event, emergency services, hospitals and receiving facilities may all be stretched, so JHA's plans should allow it to manage on its own for the first critical hours.
#### Testing and Challenging Assumptions
Test assumptions, not just approve them. JHA can test them in three ways. It can check them against data, such as staff sickness records during past outbreaks. It can check them with partners, such as asking a supplier how quickly it could resume deliveries. It can also test them in exercises, such as timing how long it takes to prepare residents for relocation.
For example, a tabletop exercise might reveal that A6's 24-hour preparation time is too optimistic because the receiving facility needs MSF's confirmation before admitting residents (illustrative). The team would then revise the assumption and adjust the relocation plan.
#### Managing the Assumptions Register
JHA should keep a short assumptions register showing each assumption, its rationale, its source, its owner, the approval date, and the next review date. The BCM coordinator maintains the register; the steering committee approves changes.
Review the register at least annually and after any major incident or exercise. Changes in JHA's environment, such as the new licensing regime under the Social Residential Homes Act 2025 or more frequent extreme heat, may also require updating assumptions.
#### Summary Table
**Table 5: Determining BCM Assumptions for Jamiyah Home for the Aged**
| **Ref** | **Assumption (illustrative)** | **Rationale** | **How to test** | **Plans affected** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **A1** | Up to 30% staff absence for four weeks | Epidemics and transport disruption affect staff too | Review absence data; staffing exercise | Staffing, all Tier 1 services |
| **A2** | Premises unusable for up to two weeks | Single site; fire or flood possible | Tabletop exercise on site loss | Relocation plan |
| **A3** | Utilities lost for up to 24 hours | Power or water failures do occur | Test backup lighting and water supply | Supervision, meals, medical care |
| **A4** | Key supplier out for 72 hours | Dependence on external meals and laundry | Ask suppliers about their own continuity | Meals, laundry, cleaning |
| **A5** | Transport to medical care disrupted 24 hours | Dialysis and hospital visits rely on transport | Check alternative transport options | Dialysis, medical care, transport |
| **A6** | Receiving facility needs 24 hours to prepare | MSF involvement and space availability | Discuss with MSF and Jamiyah Singapore | Relocation, family access |
| **A7** | Most residents need help to move or adapt | Residents are elderly and frail | Timed evacuation drill | Evacuation, supervision, staffing |
All values are illustrative and must be confirmed through JHA's BIA and approved by its steering committee.
#### [](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3893111/64d16cdc-b532-47f6-af61-7b33f5b500a3)
#### Conclusion
Written, tested assumptions turn JHA's continuity plans from hopeful to credible. The seven proposed assumptions cover staff, premises, utilities, suppliers, medical services, relocation and residents' needs, and each points to a specific plan. Kept in a reviewed register, they will evolve as JHA learns from its BIA, its exercises and real incidents.
Assumptions need owners, and plans need people to carry them out, which brings JHA to the composition of its BCM team.
## Sources
- [MSF: Welfare Homes](https://www.msf.gov.sg/what-we-do/help-those-in-need/article/programmes/welfare-homes)
- [LTCcovid: The COVID-19 Long-Term Care Situation in Singapore (July 2020)](https://ltccovid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/The-COVID-19-Long-Term-Care-situation-in-Singapore-27July-2020-1.pdf)
**Continue reading:** Chapter 6, *Composing BCM Team for Jamiyah Home for the Aged*, sets out who leads, coordinates and delivers JHA's continuity programme.
---
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