[BCM] [ARC] [E3] [RAR] [T3] Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

Part 3: RAR – Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment

In today’s dynamic and complex operating environment, non-profit organisations like the Autism Resource Centre (ARC) must proactively manage risks that could disrupt their operations, undermine stakeholder trust, or jeopardise their mission to serve the autism community.

This chapter—Part 3: RAR – Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment—aims to evaluate and quantify the potential threats facing ARC by analysing their impact across critical dimensions such as finance, operations, legal compliance, reputation, social responsibility, human resources, and IT infrastructure.

Through this structured assessment, each identified threat is systematically measured for its severity of impact and likelihood of occurrence, using a scoring model aligned with industry best practices.

The resulting risk rating and risk level provide ARC with a prioritised understanding of which risks require immediate attention and the potential disruption each could cause.

This analysis serves as the foundation for developing effective treatment plans and resilience strategies in subsequent risk management phases.

Table: Risk Impact and Likelihood Assessment for Autism Resource Centre

Notes

• Risk Impact Area (Highest Score): Refers to the dimension with the greatest consequence (scale of 1–5).
• Risk Likelihood: Likelihood of occurrence (1 = Rare, 5 = Almost Certain).
• Risk Rating: Impact × Likelihood.
• Risk Level: Categorised based on the risk rating (e.g., Low: 1–6, Medium: 7–14, High: 15–25).
• Expected Period of Disruption: Estimated recovery time needed if the threat materialises.

Summing Up ...

The risk impact and likelihood assessment provides ARC with a comprehensive overview of its threat landscape and the potential consequences of inaction.

High-risk scenarios such as cyberattacks, data breaches, and pandemic-related disruptions highlight critical vulnerabilities in ARC’s operational and technological domains.

Meanwhile, medium-level risks such as compliance failures, reputation incidents, and funding shortfalls underscore the importance of ongoing governance, staff conduct, and donor engagement.

By identifying and quantifying these risks, ARC is better positioned to make informed decisions regarding risk prioritisation, resource allocation, and mitigation planning.

This proactive approach not only strengthens organisational resilience but also safeguards the continuity of vital services delivered to the autism community.

The insights gained from this assessment will directly inform the treatment and control strategies detailed in the following chapters of the risk management framework.